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  1. #1
    This topic is another spin off of the discussion on other low magic settings (http://www.birthright.net/forums/ind...showtopic=2736). The other spinoff (slightly related to this one) can be found here: http://www.birthright.net/forums/ind...showtopic=2739

    Now as I was going through my calculations on the prevalence of Scions and wizards and such, I started to take a good look at the population levels listed in the BRCS, and they seem very low. For example, given the reported size of a typical province (40x40 miles), in a level 5 province we end up with a population density of 12.5 people / square mile. Even if we reduce the size of the province to about 30x30 miles (which I think is more typical after a quick scan of southern anuire), we get a population density of 22.2 people / square mile which is still low (MMS:WE, which I know I refer to quite often, says that the "typical" medieval kingdom has a population range of between 30-160 people / square mile). This is especially true when you consider that in Anuire at least, level 5 provinces seem to reflect the beginnings of truly urbanized/developed areas. Most larger domains have capital provinces of levels 5 or 6. Larger Provinces represent major urban centers, which should have greater populations to suppot them (I've only been able to count seven such provinces in all of Cerilia: Anuire in Avanil, the City of Anuire, Ilien, One in Kal Kalathor in Vosgaard, Two in Muden, and Ariya).

    Going back to MMS:WE, I tried to figure out some decent levels of population that would not only expand the scion/wizard base (assuming the proportions I mentioned in the first thread I cited above), but also expand the population of Anuire beyond the roughly 1.5 million people at which the current table places it (which yields a very general estimate of about 10-11 people per square mile).

    Basically, I worked from one principle, that generally, 2 adults are required to provide enough labor for every acre of staple crops under cultivation. There are 640 acres to every square mile, but for every agricultural square mile only about 75%-90% (I used 75%) of the acreage is devoted to staples. So in the 900 square miles of a typical province there are 576,000 acres. If all the land in the province was given over completely to agricultural pursuits, this would yield 432,000 acres of staple crops and 864,000 people. However, it is very unlikely that all of the land would be used for this purpose. Indeed, it would be very atypical.

    Working from the a consideration that the typical medieval maximum population density would be reached somewhere between province levels 5 and 6, I developed a progressive chart as to just how much land was cultivated in each province, from 1% for a level 0 province, to 40% for a level 10 province.

    MMS:WE also mentions that typically between 6.67-20% of a province's population is urban. Since I had already calculated the peasant/rural population, and didn't want all sorts of weird percentages that would result of calculating what the result of the unknown urban pop + the peasant pop and what not would be, I just added this percentages on top of the rural pop (the difference in acuracy would typically be within 1-2% anyway). Purely on my own estimate, probably about half of this urban population should live in the largest city in the province, while the rest would be divided among smaller population centers.

    Province Level..........%Cultivated........Rural Pop.........%urban.......Urban Pop

    0.............................1%.................. ...8,640................0%..............0
    1.............................3%.................. ...25,920.............6%...............1,555
    2.............................5%.................. ...43,200..............7%...............3,024
    3.............................8%.................. ...69,120..............8%...............5,529
    4.............................11%................. ..95,040..............9%...............8,553
    5.............................14%................. ..120,960............10%..............12,096
    6.............................18%................. ..155,520............12%..............18,662
    7.............................22%................. ...190,080...........14%...............26,611
    8.............................27%................. ...233,280...........16%...............37,324
    9.............................32%................. ...276,480...........18%...............49,766
    10...........................40%.................. ..345,600............20%...............69,120

    Province Level...........Total Pop............Density.............BRCS Density

    0..............................8,640.............. ...9.6....................0
    1..............................27,475............. ...30.5..................1.1
    2..............................46,224............. ...51.4..................4.4
    3..............................74,649............. ...82.9..................7.8
    4..............................103,593............ ...115.1................11.1
    5..............................133,056............ ...147.8................22.2
    6..............................174,182............ ...193.5................33.3
    7..............................216,691............ ...240.8................44.4
    8..............................270,604............ ...300.7................66.6
    9..............................326,246............ ...362.5................88.8
    10............................414,720............. ...460.8...............111.1

    So Medoere, for example, instead of having 21,000 people and thus being limited to about 21 blooded individuals, would end up with a population of 224, 511 and about 225 blooded individuals.

    These calculations don't even contradict the BRCS neccessarily, since that document makes it clear that the numbers given represent taxpayers, who would probably be landed gentry (whose peasants would pay taxes to them, not the royal coffers), and well to do urban peoples, such as guildsmen and merchants.

    However, my tables give a slightly better estimate as to the actual populations of Cerilian provinces.

  2. #2
    Using the tables above I get an Anuirean population (discounting Awnsheghlien controlled and nonhuman realms) of about 11-1/2 million Anuireans, which would yield about 11,500 Anuirean scions and perhaps 14 or so true wizards using the one per 833 scions ratio I came up with in the other thread, or 58 or so using the 1 per 200 I came up with before that (0.5%).

    Using the historic Populations I found on this page, that corresponds roughly to the population of Germany and Scandinavia in 1340, is slightly more than the population of Italy at that time, and is a good deal less than the population of France.

    My recalculated estimated population density of Anuire would be of about 83 people per square mile, which falls well within the ranges I mentioned earlier.

  3. #3
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    I always thought that the pop was dodgy for the nations and provinces. As has everyone I have played with but rather than try and make up tables we just said x10 so for example anuire would have about 15 million people rather than 1.5.
    MORNINGSTAR

  4. #4

    I always thought that the pop was dodgy for the nations and provinces. As has everyone I have played with but rather than try and make up tables we just said x10 so for example anuire would have about 15 million people rather than 1.5.
    To a certain extent either method tends to work well, if you look at the example of Medoere the two methods come up with a number that is only different by a margin of 6.9%. Although I will admit that my method is somewhat arbitrary at times, especially after provincial levels of 6, but as I said those are very rare anyway. Mostly this was since I didn't really have a precedent to work off of.

    If you look at province levels 2, 3, and 4 (which are by far the most common province levels in Anuire) our two methods would generate roughly equivalent population levels: 46,224 vs. 40,000; 74,694 vs. 70,000; and 103,593 vs. 100,000.
    The main divergence comes at province levels 5 and up where the standard table times 10 begins to double the population every iteration, while mine, though increasing growth at every iteration due to increasing urbanization, tends to grow at a more linear rate. Thus, a level 10 province in my tables has a density of 460.8 people per square mile, while using the x10 method, it has a density of 1,111.1 people per square mile.

  5. #5
    Site Moderator geeman's Avatar
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    FYI, I totalled all the population levels from the original materials many

    moons ago (2000.) Along with those totals are the numbers used to comprise

    them, totals by race and region, a break down of character levels amongst

    those population, character class distribution, and the whole kit an

    caboodle is presented in several tables. That information and the

    associated numbers can be found in the birthright-l archives under the

    title "Cerilian Census."



    Gary

  6. #6
    Birthright Developer Raesene Andu's Avatar
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    While working on the Atlas of Cerilia I made some major adjustments to the population levels, including changes to the table included in the BRCS. After adjustments, the population of Anuire came in at around 6 million I believe, which didn't strike me as too far off an acurate figure, given the history of the region and the fact that there are still some wild lands and mountanous region that will be poorly populated.
    I can post that information if anyone is interested, although I thought I had done, some time back...
    Let me claim your Birthright!!

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    Doesn't increasing the size of the population necessitate increasing the size of militaries and/or occupation armies? If Medoere has a population of a quarter million mean they should have an army larger than 1200 to keep order, and defend the populace? Mulitplying the military size then, decreases the effectiveness of the character, thus removing the heroic concept... although, it does decrease the value of battle wizards. It means that the battle wizard will only scratch the amount of troops in the army.

  8. #8
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    Military is not th only way to keep the population in line. Don't forget that the Law holdings represent not only bureaucracy, but Constables, Reeves, Sherrifs, Game Wardens, caravan guards, etc...

    They all keep the peace...
    "It may be better to be a live jackal than a dead lion, but it is better still to be a live lion -- and usually easier."

    - R. A. Heinlien, from The Collected works of Lazarus Long

  9. #9
    Birthright Developer Raesene Andu's Avatar
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    Medoere would not have a population of 250,000 unless you want to increase the population density to unrealistic levels. We had a lot of discussion about this when working on the BRCS, and I actually sat down one day and worked out the exact size of Anuire and them compared the population to Medieval france. Using that method, 6 million is not too far off, as Anuire isn't as large as France.
    Let me claim your Birthright!!

  10. #10

    Medoere would not have a population of 250,000 unless you want to increase the population density to unrealistic levels. We had a lot of discussion about this when working on the BRCS, and I actually sat down one day and worked out the exact size of Anuire and them compared the population to Medieval france. Using that method, 6 million is not too far off, as Anuire isn't as large as France.
    Out of curiousity, how big is Anuire? As I mentioned earlier I did guestimates, mostly by noting that it would fit in a square roughly 480x480 miles, but that probably only 60% of that square is territory that would actually be considered anuirean (and not, say, water or the Gorgon's crown). My result came to something about the size of modern Germany. I also compared my size and population calculations to France (at 1340 pop levels) and came up with Anuire being 65% the size of France and having 60.5% the population. One of my guestimate 30x30 mile provinces turned out to be about the size of Luxembourg.

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