http://www.birthright.net/forums/sho...4869#post34869

I wanted to respond, and found out I couldn't, so I created a new thread to this topic which I find interesting, please share your opinions on topic.

I must say I like kgauck's break down of the scenario, very well thought out.

I would say however it is incomplete, IF we take the situation beyond Anuire and look to what would enable one side or another to gain the advantage...

Avan in his ability to politic and ally with others, may seek aid from Rhjurik, Khinasi, etc. any of the realms outside of Anuire are game for an alliance which could aid him in his efforts... for a price of course.

Rhuobe Manslayer can alter the situation drastically simply by succeeding in killing Avan or Aeric; though the Avan line looks better situated to quickly recover from such an occurance than Boeruine, based on canon information and potential succession. Any EPIC event that significantly harms one side or the other would turn this from a stand off of near equals, to a heavily favored fight for the side that was unharmed.

If Avan built up his alliances and resources for YEARS, married off Aubrae to gain a new ally, it is very likely he could overwhelm Boeruine. Patience and planning is on Avan's side, brute force and better positioning belong to Aeric...