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  1. #1 (Lyndon

    Population Growth Levels Help

    Hi Craig

    If any library near you has Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones ATLAS OF
    WORLD POPULATION HISTORY you probably would find it a useful read. I
    believe it is out of print.

    different paperbacks) is still showing up, and is a good read.
    One of the nifty things about this is that essentially all the
    maps in each book are the same scale, which really fairly shows

    Bad news: Historically population growth was not very fast, Europe
    averaged 80% growth between 1300 and 1750 with a lot of technological
    innovation. 40% in a century is remarkable for pre-industrial people.
    There are exceptions. The British colonies in the Americas
    for instance had enormous resources, and almost no new diseases to
    cope with, so families with umpteen kids, majority surviving to
    adulthood, were not remarkably uncommon.

    4 children, even 4 surviing-past-the-first-year children is probably
    way low. in 1991 (not a typo, in this decade) a survey of 500 Sudanse
    women with an average age of 26 years and ten years of marriage was
    conducted under the auspices of the Ahfad University College for
    Women. The general fertility rate for Muslim Sudanese women at that
    time was 6.0 children. Those women who exercised personal choice in
    their husband (rather than traditional arranged marriages), and
    especially the 13% who had salaried work outside home had on the
    average 3.5 children ...
    From ISLAMIC SOCIETY IN PRACTICE, by Carolyn Fluerhr-Lobban, c.

    ===> In the abscence of plague, famine, invasion, monsters, etc. etc.

  2. #2
    Pieter A de Jong

    Population Growth Levels Help

    To be very simple, I would ask if you have a population growth system
    that satisfies you for a normal (50/50) sex ratio? If you have such a
    system, consider that the limiting factor on population is of course the
    number of women available, as a woman is either pregnant or not (in
    words, one man can fertilize multiple women, but one woman cannot be
    pregnant more than once at any given time). I would simply suggest the
    growth in the population as the same as that of a normal population that
    is 30% of size of the actual population.

    Craig T. Dalrymple wrote:
    > Greetings.
    > I'm developing a new campaign setting based on Birthright (thus the cross
    > post) and need some help from the mathematically superior.
    > In this setting the initial population ratio of men to women is something
    > like 85/15, or potentially worse. The people were not born here, they
    > "arrived" here after a great battle, thus the disparity between the two
    > sexes.
    > Assuming that the chances for a child of a given sex are equal to that of
    > any other sex, I.e. boys/girls come out at 50/50, how fast would the
    > population grow over the course of one hundred years??
    > Assume the following birthrate is the "average" for the world:
    > for every woman's lifetime, she will deliver 4 children who make it through
    > their first year of life.
    > For attrition assume that in any given year 15% of the people die. (spread
    > on the same 85/15 scale) [not including the small percentage of children who
    > do not make the first year, they are not factored in at all]
    > I am sure I can pencil this for days on end and come up with something, or
    > just be arbitrary, but I am hoping to find real statistics that I can apply
    > to the various groups who have "arrived" in this new land. Some will have
    > higher rates of reproduction (like the goblins, etc), some lower (elves,
    > dwarves). If I can get a realistic base for the "average" cuture/people, I
    > can tweak it to fit each group from there.
    > This world is small enough that I intend to have a population count to the
    > nearest thousand for each nation.
    > Thanks for your help!
    > Either way, I'm still me:
    > Craigd
    > ************************************************** *************************
    > > - --

    Pieter A de Jong
    Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
    University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
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