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Thread: Elven longlivety
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02-16-1999, 03:05 AM #11Kenneth GauckGuest
Elven longlivety
Be careful with averages. This kind of statistic is of the "one foot in ice
water, the other foot in scalding, one average person feels fine" variety.
There was lots of infant mortality, if you survived that you were likely to
live a long time. Historical demographics uses three benchmark ages, 1
year, 5 years and 20 (or 21) years. So proper demographic method would be
to as:
Of the number of births, how many reach 1 year, how many reach 5, how many
reach 21, and of those who reach 21, what is the average life expectancy.
The idea that the "average" Roman lived 27 years makes it sound as if alot
of people were dieing in thier twenties and thirties, which was not the
case. Lots of child mortality brings down the average, which was otherwise
in the mid 50's. There was no appreciable extention of life until after
WWII. Before that most demographic advances were in the reduction of child
mortality.
Kenneth Gauck
c558382@earthlink.net
- -----Original Message-----
From: David Sean Brown
To: birthright@MPGN.COM
Date: Monday, February 15, 1999 8:36 PM
Subject: Re: [BIRTHRIGHT] - Elven longlivety
>I think its important to look at the time frame here...you are right that
>accident isn't the leading cause of death these days (with the exception
>of the 15-25 (ish) age group..its disease, and it always has been...even
>in magic fantasy worlds, not everyone has access to a cleric to heal them,
>and with no antibiotics, your life expectancy is alarmly short (If I
>recall correctly, the average Roman lived about 27 years...whether he/she
>was killed in a war or not)..
>
>Remember, that even at the turn of the century, life expectancy for the
>average American Citizen was only about 40 years...
>
>Sean
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02-16-1999, 02:56 PM #12
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Elven longlivety
> Hmmm, a new weapon fo the ghallie sidhe? Cerilian elves enter the fine art
> of biological warfare... It is recorded that one of the first attempts at
> this was a missionary during the colization of america who distributed
> blankets deliberately collected from children who had either been sick with
> or died of small pocks among the native american population. I think that
> man had more Gold in his heart than God...
Gee, I didn't know god had gold in his heart... ;)
My, that missionary sure must've had a heart of gold if he had more gold
in his heart than god... ;)
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02-16-1999, 03:01 PM #13
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Elven longlivety
> >Hmmm, a new weapon fo the ghallie sidhe? Cerilian elves enter the fine art
> >of biological warfare... It is recorded that one of the first attempts at
> >this was a missionary during the colization of america who distributed
> >blankets deliberately collected from children who had either been sick with
> >or died of small pocks among the native american population. I think that
> >man had more Gold in his heart than God...
>
> And is milenia after other recorded accounts of similar behavior. This is
> no where near the first of anything.
Indeed, in mediaevel times, armies laying siege were pretty fond of
catapulting deceased and diseased cows and other livestock over the walls
and into the castle.
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02-16-1999, 03:17 PM #14Pieter A de JongGuest
Elven longlivety
J. D. Lail wrote:
>
> Pieter you are flat wrong on your statistics here. You are calculating
> probabilities in a way that is not allowed. Cumulative probabilities
> are multiplacative not addiditive. Thus you would take the chance of
> living you quoted (.99689) and exponentiate it.
>
> 1) After 100 years only 73.2 % will still be alive.
> 2) After 200 years only 53.6 % will still be alive.
> 3) After 500 years only 21.0 % will still be alive.
> 4) After 1000 years only 4.4 % will still be alive.
>
> And that is using a mortality rate that is unachievable in the technology
> available to the elves imnho. Use something reasonable and it really gets
> hairy quick.
>
Don, I know how to calculate probability. To be specific. (1-X)^n=P.
Where X is the probability of death due to accident (44.1/100000), P is
the
probability of the elf dying (0.5), and n is the number of years.
Therefore:
1-X= 0.999559
log(1-x)=-1.915661E-4
P=0.5
log(P)=-0.30103
n*log(1-x)=log(P)
n=log(P)/log(1-x)
n=-0.30103/(-1.915661E-4)=1571.416
I trust that I am making myself clear. The accident rate you used in
your
calculations is actually 311/100000. And while technology may help
people
survive accidents, it also provides many more possible accidents, and
people
don't have elves natural advantages. ie. someone with a weak heart from
smoking is much more likely to die as a result of an electric shock.
Also,
the elven immunity to disease will save many lives by preventing
secondary
infections. Note that such deaths are considered accidental in these
statistics as without the accident, such an infection would not be
lethal.
- --
Pieter A de Jong
Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
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02-16-1999, 03:22 PM #15Pieter A de JongGuest
Elven longlivety
David Sean Brown wrote:
>
> I think its important to look at the time frame here...you are right that
> accident isn't the leading cause of death these days (with the exception
> of the 15-25 (ish) age group..its disease, and it always has been...even
> in magic fantasy worlds, not everyone has access to a cleric to heal them,
> and with no antibiotics, your life expectancy is alarmly short (If I
> recall correctly, the average Roman lived about 27 years...whether he/she
> was killed in a war or not)..
>
> Remember, that even at the turn of the century, life expectancy for the
> average American Citizen was only about 40 years...
>
This would be a very appropriate comment, if we weren't discussing the
most
difficult for the DM race in Birthrigtht, the elves. Elves are immune
to
disease and aging effects. Every elf is effectively at their physical
prime
from the time they reach adulthood to the time they die.
- --
Pieter A de Jong
Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
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02-16-1999, 03:25 PM #16Pieter A de JongGuest
Elven longlivety
Kenneth Gauck wrote:
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Pieter A de Jong
> Date: Monday, February 15, 1999 4:27 PM
> >.....stereotypical empty headed california valley girls.
>
> Appreciation of aethetics is not empty headed. Indeed it approaches truth
> more honestly than the material ever does.
You are correct. I cannot say however, that appreciative of aethestics
is the appropriated description for people who think Beavis and Butthead
is the highest possible form of humor.
Pieter A de Jong
Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
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02-16-1999, 04:02 PM #17
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Elven longlivety
> This would be a very appropriate comment, if we weren't discussing the
> most
> difficult for the DM race in Birthrigtht, the elves. Elves are immune
> to
> disease and aging effects. Every elf is effectively at their physical
> prime
> from the time they reach adulthood to the time they die.
One of my players pointed out that the great drawback of not having a
maximum age - or a maximum age of infinite (depends on how you look at
it) - is that this also means that you would never get any Wis or Int
bonuses. Humans can get age bonuses to Wis and Int pretty fast -
infinitely faster than elves.
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02-16-1999, 04:05 PM #18Pieter A de JongGuest
Elven longlivety
the Falcon wrote:
>
> > This would be a very appropriate comment, if we weren't discussing the
> > most
> > difficult for the DM race in Birthrigtht, the elves. Elves are immune
> > to
> > disease and aging effects. Every elf is effectively at their physical
> > prime
> > from the time they reach adulthood to the time they die.
>
> One of my players pointed out that the great drawback of not having a
> maximum age - or a maximum age of infinite (depends on how you look at
> it) - is that this also means that you would never get any Wis or Int
> bonuses. Humans can get age bonuses to Wis and Int pretty fast -
> infinitely faster than elves.
>
Well, I have never really bothered applying those in my campaign.
However,
if I did, I would use the standard suggested increases in
Wisdom/intelligence
with age for elves while not reducing their constitution/strength. I
would
simply take the final age category and change the upper limit of age to
infinite.
- --
Pieter A de Jong
Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
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02-16-1999, 06:08 PM #19Pieter SleijpenGuest
Elven longlivety
Pieter A de Jong wrote:
>
> The vast majority of people do nothing, that's right. Only adventurers
> really advance in level. However, adventurers of any race are
> exceptional
> individuals. Therefore, there is no reason to say that an elven
> adventurer is going to be less driven than his (or her) human
> couterpart.
> That is where you and I part views.
MMM, actually we don't. It seems we misunderstood each other.
We were discussing mainly why elves had so few high level hero's when
compared to humans. I explaind why. Some elves certianly have the drive,
at least for a while. Life as an adventurer is taxing though, and when
you are immortal death means a lot more then to a human. And just think
of all the psychological trauma's humans get when they land in RL into
the situations in which adventurers find them regularly. An elf has to
carry that for a millenium, not just a few decades. Only a rare few
(like Ruobhe -by choice- or the Queen of Rhuanach -by force-) will ever
keep the drive up to keep going.
Pieter Sleijpen
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02-16-1999, 06:29 PM #20Pieter SleijpenGuest
Elven longlivety
DKEvermore@aol.com wrote:
>
> In a message dated 2/15/99 2:05:57 PM Central Standard Time, madfox@wxs.nl
> writes:
>
> > Most people seem to assume that every elf will be several centuries old,
> > but that sounds to me a little far fetched. I know that this is a
> > fantasy game, but lets take a look at RL science. One of the main
> > reasons evolution did not select for a long life, is the chance rate of
> > dying by some kind of freakish accident. In fact, I heard a scientist
> > state that if humans would become immortal, there still would be almost
> > no human older then 700 years. By that time they would have died due to
> > some unfortunate accident. While in Cerilia there are no cars and that
> > kind of things, I still think that most elves die before the end of
> > their first millenium. If not only for all those humans, goblins and
> > other dangerous creatures. One should also not forget that they do not
> > have clerics. Which means that if they get below 0 hp (if you use that
> > optiniol rule), they will almost certainly die.
> >
> Of course it's far fetched that elves are immortal and might be a 1000
> years old. That's the point of fantasy. Giant ants are impossible,
> too, without lungs, but that doesn't stop GMs from throwing them
> against the party instead of having them lying twitching as they
> slowly suffocate. Amazingly giants' hearts are only flesh and blood,
> yet manage to pump blood tens of feet against the force of gravity
> without exploding or giving out before the giant if 5 years old.
>
One thing first, giants are not impossible because of their lungs
(except maybe the real big ones). How else do you think the dinosaurs
survived? You are thinking about insects and other of their kinds, who
indeed can not survive past a certain size because of a lack of oxygen
(and with a higer carbon dioxide:oxigen ratio they could become larger).
The reasons giants would be impossible is due to back problems and I
have no problems immagining them having differnt material in their bones
and a different build then humans.
I can assure you that magic could explain a lot in my eyes, but not the
survival due to accidents. Unless you make your elven PC's less prone to
accidents...
(As a side note, immortality, immunity to disease and night vision would
not be to difficult to explain with science. Elves would also not be
that good at developing disease as a weapon, they would have quite a
difficulty understanding the concept.)
Pieter Sleijpen
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