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02-05-1999, 09:45 AM #1
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Elven longlivety
*******original text follows***************
>> Most people seem to assume that every elf will be several centuries old,
>> but that sounds to me a little far fetched. I know that this is a
>> fantasy game, but lets take a look at RL science. One of the main
>> reasons evolution did not select for a long life, is the chance rate of
>> dying by some kind of freakish accident. In fact, I heard a scientist
>> state that if humans would become immortal, there still would be almost
>> no human older then 700 years. By that time they would have died due to
>> some unfortunate accident. While in Cerilia there are no cars and that
>> kind of things, I still think that most elves die before the end of
>> their first millenium. If not only for all those humans, goblins and
>> other dangerous creatures. One should also not forget that they do not
>> have clerics. Which means that if they get below 0 hp (if you use that
>> optionial rule), they will almost certainly die.
>I don't think that I agree with you here. How many life threatening
>accidents do you think people have? Japanese 1997 census data indicates
>a rate of 31.1 accidental deaths for every 10000 people per year.
>Accidents don't show up as a top 5 cause of death until 1961. The
>highest rate of accidental deaths they have ever recorded is 44.1/100000
>people.
>At that rate, it will take 1571.4 years before any individual elf has
>even a 50% chance of dying from an accident. There are people who will
>say that this example is distorted by modern medicine, on the other
>hand, society today is considerably more likely to produce lethal accidents
>(Motor vehicles, electrical appliances).
Pieter you are flat wrong on your statistics here. You are calculating
probabilities in a way that is not allowed. Cumulative probabilities
are multiplacative not addiditive. Thus you would take the chance of
living you quoted (.99689) and exponentiate it.
1) After 100 years only 73.2 % will still be alive.
2) After 200 years only 53.6 % will still be alive.
3) After 500 years only 21.0 % will still be alive.
4) After 1000 years only 4.4 % will still be alive.
And that is using a mortality rate that is unachievable in the technology
available to the elves imnho. Use something reasonable and it really gets
hairy quick.
Don Lail
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02-15-1999, 07:59 PM #2Pieter SleijpenGuest
Elven longlivety
Most people seem to assume that every elf will be several centuries old,
but that sounds to me a little far fetched. I know that this is a
fantasy game, but lets take a look at RL science. One of the main
reasons evolution did not select for a long life, is the chance rate of
dying by some kind of freakish accident. In fact, I heard a scientist
state that if humans would become immortal, there still would be almost
no human older then 700 years. By that time they would have died due to
some unfortunate accident. While in Cerilia there are no cars and that
kind of things, I still think that most elves die before the end of
their first millenium. If not only for all those humans, goblins and
other dangerous creatures. One should also not forget that they do not
have clerics. Which means that if they get below 0 hp (if you use that
optiniol rule), they will almost certainly die.
One of my other arguments was that they do not adventure at all. Meaning
that they do not get any experience at all. So it is not just 1/5th
slower, for most elves it is a lot more then that.
Pieter Sleijpen
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02-15-1999, 08:34 PM #3Pieter A de JongGuest
Elven longlivety
Pieter Sleijpen wrote:
>
> Most people seem to assume that every elf will be several centuries old,
> but that sounds to me a little far fetched. I know that this is a
> fantasy game, but lets take a look at RL science. One of the main
> reasons evolution did not select for a long life, is the chance rate of
> dying by some kind of freakish accident. In fact, I heard a scientist
> state that if humans would become immortal, there still would be almost
> no human older then 700 years. By that time they would have died due to
> some unfortunate accident. While in Cerilia there are no cars and that
> kind of things, I still think that most elves die before the end of
> their first millenium. If not only for all those humans, goblins and
> other dangerous creatures. One should also not forget that they do not
> have clerics. Which means that if they get below 0 hp (if you use that
> optiniol rule), they will almost certainly die.
>
I don't think that I agree with you here. How many life threatening
accidents do you think people have? Japanese 1997 census data indicates
a rate of 31.1 accidental deaths for every 10000 people per year.
Accidents don't show up as a top 5 cause of death until 1961. The
highest
rate of accidental deaths they have ever recorded is 44.1/100000 people.
At that rate, it will take 1571.4 years before any individual elf has
even a 50% chance of dying from an accident. There are people who will
say that this example is distorted by modern medicine, on the other
hand,
society today is considerably more likely to produce lethal accidents
(Motor vehicles, electrical appliances).
Data from the vital statistics page at :
http://www.mhw.go.jp/english/database/populate/index.html
> One of my other arguments was that they do not adventure at all. Meaning
> that they do not get any experience at all. So it is not just 1/5th
> slower, for most elves it is a lot more then that.
This makes loads of sense. How many demihuman PC's sit out 4/5
adventures, as compared to the human characters. I would suggest that
you quit stereotyping your non-human races. I suggest that every race
will show as much diversity of character as humans do. Therefore, some
elves may not be interested in working at all (as some humans are). But
some elves will be quite interested in performing services for their own
people, exploring the world, or experimenting with magic.
- --
Pieter A de Jong
Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
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02-15-1999, 09:05 PM #4Pieter SleijpenGuest
Elven longlivety
Pieter A de Jong wrote:
> I don't think that I agree with you here. How many life threatening
> accidents do you think people have? Japanese 1997 census data indicates
> a rate of 31.1 accidental deaths for every 10000 people per year.
> Accidents don't show up as a top 5 cause of death until 1961. The
> highest
> rate of accidental deaths they have ever recorded is 44.1/100000 people.
> At that rate, it will take 1571.4 years before any individual elf has
> even a 50% chance of dying from an accident. There are people who will
> say that this example is distorted by modern medicine, on the other
> hand,
> society today is considerably more likely to produce lethal accidents
> (Motor vehicles, electrical appliances).
As you said yourself, modern science is a two-edged sword. First of all,
In the past most people would have died because of diseases before they
died in an accident. That could quite well explain why it is in the
top-something only recently. Not to mention that modern science makes
rescues from near-death situations a lot more likely. Though magic might
replace that part.
I also wonder if those numbers take wars into account? All the elven
nations are under constant siege. Sounds to me that there is a lot of
war going on.
> > One of my other arguments was that they do not adventure at all. Meaning
> > that they do not get any experience at all. So it is not just 1/5th
> > slower, for most elves it is a lot more then that.
>
> This makes loads of sense. How many demihuman PC's sit out 4/5
> adventures, as compared to the human characters. I would suggest that
> you quit stereotyping your non-human races. I suggest that every race
> will show as much diversity of character as humans do. Therefore, some
> elves may not be interested in working at all (as some humans are). But
> some elves will be quite interested in performing services for their own
> people, exploring the world, or experimenting with magic.
Why should a completely different race have the same outlook to life?
Why should dwarves, halflings and elves being humans? Sure, in my
campaign every major character is unique (of coarse every character is
unique, but I lack the time to go into that much detail). That includes
the few non-human sentient creatures my PC's have met. But do you really
think that the average attitude of a race that is immortal, immune to
diseases, needs no sleep and has got way different senses then humans,
would act like humans?
Besides, the fast majority of humans do nothing, since there are a lot
less elfs then humans, that means that there are a lot less adventurers.
Even when you took the same percentage as being classed characters. As
for non-human adventures...as it happens I have only 1 non-human PC in a
total of 16 or so! And that elf is planning to play an other character
temporarily, because the elf wants to do something else for some time.
Pieter Sleijpen
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02-15-1999, 10:12 PM #5Pieter A de JongGuest
Elven longlivety
Pieter Sleijpen wrote:
>
> Pieter A de Jong wrote:
>
> > I don't think that I agree with you here. How many life threatening
> > accidents do you think people have? Japanese 1997 census data indicates
> > a rate of 31.1 accidental deaths for every 10000 people per year.
> > Accidents don't show up as a top 5 cause of death until 1961. The
> > highest
> > rate of accidental deaths they have ever recorded is 44.1/100000 people.
> > At that rate, it will take 1571.4 years before any individual elf has
> > even a 50% chance of dying from an accident. There are people who will
> > say that this example is distorted by modern medicine, on the other
> > hand,
> > society today is considerably more likely to produce lethal accidents
> > (Motor vehicles, electrical appliances).
>
> As you said yourself, modern science is a two-edged sword. First of all,
> In the past most people would have died because of diseases before they
> died in an accident. That could quite well explain why it is in the
> top-something only recently. Not to mention that modern science makes
> rescues from near-death situations a lot more likely. Though magic might
> replace that part.
>
> I also wonder if those numbers take wars into account? All the elven
> nations are under constant siege. Sounds to me that there is a lot of
> war going on.
>
No, these numbers don't take wars into account, Japan hasn't fought a
war
since WW2. War deaths don't count as accidents, neither do murders. Your
post was discussing accidental deaths. I would suggest that elven
casualty
rates in warfare are also going to be very low. It's not like they
catch
gangrene. Also, as immortals, individual troopers are much more likely
to
be veterans and therefore are many times more likely to survive combat.
> > > One of my other arguments was that they do not adventure at all. Meaning
> > > that they do not get any experience at all. So it is not just 1/5th
> > > slower, for most elves it is a lot more then that.
> >
> > This makes loads of sense. How many demihuman PC's sit out 4/5
> > adventures, as compared to the human characters. I would suggest that
> > you quit stereotyping your non-human races. I suggest that every race
> > will show as much diversity of character as humans do. Therefore, some
> > elves may not be interested in working at all (as some humans are). But
> > some elves will be quite interested in performing services for their own
> > people, exploring the world, or experimenting with magic.
>
> Why should a completely different race have the same outlook to life?
> Why should dwarves, halflings and elves being humans? Sure, in my
> campaign every major character is unique (of coarse every character is
> unique, but I lack the time to go into that much detail). That includes
> the few non-human sentient creatures my PC's have met. But do you really
> think that the average attitude of a race that is immortal, immune to
> diseases, needs no sleep and has got way different senses then humans,
> would act like humans?
No, I don't. I also don't expect them all to cut from the same cookie
cutter mold. All of them content to frolick in the moonlight glades of
the elven woods and drink dewdrops. No, I expect to see large amounts
of variation inside any given race, from driven individuals like Rhuobe
Manslayer to stereotypical empty headed california valley girls. Nor do
I expect them to look on the human race as much more than trained
monkeys, to be crushed by whatever means available if they get out of
line.
>
> Besides, the fast majority of humans do nothing, since there are a lot
> less elfs then humans, that means that there are a lot less adventurers.
> Even when you took the same percentage as being classed characters. As
> for non-human adventures...as it happens I have only 1 non-human PC in a
> total of 16 or so! And that elf is planning to play an other character
> temporarily, because the elf wants to do something else for some time.
>
The vast majority of people do nothing, that's right. Only adventurers
really advance in level. However, adventurers of any race are
exceptional
individuals. Therefore, there is no reason to say that an elven
adventurer is going to be less driven than his (or her) human
couterpart.
That is where you and I part views.
Pieter A de Jong
Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
-
02-15-1999, 11:03 PM #6DKEvermore@aol.coGuest
Elven longlivety
In a message dated 2/15/99 2:05:57 PM Central Standard Time, madfox@wxs.nl
writes:
> Most people seem to assume that every elf will be several centuries old,
> but that sounds to me a little far fetched. I know that this is a
> fantasy game, but lets take a look at RL science. One of the main
> reasons evolution did not select for a long life, is the chance rate of
> dying by some kind of freakish accident. In fact, I heard a scientist
> state that if humans would become immortal, there still would be almost
> no human older then 700 years. By that time they would have died due to
> some unfortunate accident. While in Cerilia there are no cars and that
> kind of things, I still think that most elves die before the end of
> their first millenium. If not only for all those humans, goblins and
> other dangerous creatures. One should also not forget that they do not
> have clerics. Which means that if they get below 0 hp (if you use that
> optiniol rule), they will almost certainly die.
>
Of course it's far fetched that elves are immortal and might be a 1000 years
old. That's the point of fantasy. Giant ants are impossible, too, without
lungs, but that doesn't stop GMs from throwing them against the party instead
of having them lying twitching as they slowly suffocate. Amazingly giants'
hearts are only flesh and blood, yet manage to pump blood tens of feet against
the force of gravity without exploding or giving out before the giant if 5
years old.
Come on, this is fantasy! It's supposed to be made up of the stuff of
legends!
- -DKE
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02-16-1999, 01:21 AM #7Tim NuttingGuest
Elven longlivety
Intersting statements, but science cannot account for the elvish abilities
of ultravision, immunity to disease, immunity to aging effects (a ghost's
aging does not harm a sidhe), extreme mobility across all terrain types, and
of all things, science does not account for magic.
In the scientific mind, there is no room for something so esoteric and
nonphysical as magic or religion. Nature would not select the long life for
the elves, magic would.
>
A few things:
I agree without about the mortality rate. I'd imagine that most elves do
not make it past 1,000, and I think the books agree with you, as every
regent in the game except for the awnshegh and ershegh are less than 1,000
years old. However, I have set for myself a concept that at least as many
as 20% do live that long. No scientific base, sorry, that's just the way it
is in my games.
Just because clerics are not available does not mean healing is impossible.
Necromancy cannot heal a person, but a plethora of spells from DMGR3 (?) The
Complete Necromancer's Handbook (very good - even includes a mini campaign
for Al-Qadim) demonstrate that it can transfer wounds. So magical healing
via wizardly power is not impossible, and in fact if you allow for the
superior care that elven physicians who blend knowledge of anatomy with
knowledge of the spirit, all it takes is a minor spell to bring a person
back above the death mark.
In fact as far as medical care in sidhelien society is concerned, in my
games the elves have an absolute and complete understanding of the sidhelien
body and its functions. The art of accupressure can achieve amazing results
in a person based merely by manipulating the lumbars of the human body,
imagine how much more skilled a craftsman dedicated to his art for 700 years
could do, and this is merely an example. IMC elves fully understand that
humankind's only knowledge of real healing is "dear god please heal this
man". Elves on the other hand know how to mend bones, set severe breaks,
pull a fractured rib from a heart and promote healing, etc. Add to this
that they are __completely__ immune to biological diseases eliminates a
major cause of death among humankind. Think about it: No Black Plague -
EVER. A disease that killed at least 30% of europe will never touch them.
Hmmm, a new weapon fo the ghallie sidhe? Cerilian elves enter the fine art
of biological warfare... It is recorded that one of the first attempts at
this was a missionary during the colization of america who distributed
blankets deliberately collected from children who had either been sick with
or died of small pocks among the native american population. I think that
man had more Gold in his heart than God...
I have argued time and again about the complete lack of realism displayed by
the level progression system of AD&D. Simply put it does not work for
average people. If the game were true to life then because I didn't go join
the Navy SEALs I never could have learned to read, nor would I have acquired
an AA in English, nor would I have acquired any computer skills. Modern vs.
old? Think again, by the logic of AD&D, a master chef who worked for Reole
himself would never have improved at his craft once he achieved the ripe old
age of 15. That's like saying that the best cooks in the world can be found
among the masterfully skilled and enormously dedicated artisans at the grill
in McDonald's. Oh, and BTW, the cook could only be a cook, he could never
learn to read, write, drive, ride a horse, shoot a bow, etc.
My not so humble arguments are concluded
:)
Tim Nutting
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02-16-1999, 02:25 AM #8David Sean BrownGuest
Elven longlivety
I think its important to look at the time frame here...you are right that
accident isn't the leading cause of death these days (with the exception
of the 15-25 (ish) age group..its disease, and it always has been...even
in magic fantasy worlds, not everyone has access to a cleric to heal them,
and with no antibiotics, your life expectancy is alarmly short (If I
recall correctly, the average Roman lived about 27 years...whether he/she
was killed in a war or not)..
Remember, that even at the turn of the century, life expectancy for the
average American Citizen was only about 40 years...
Sean
> I don't think that I agree with you here. How many life threatening
> accidents do you think people have? Japanese 1997 census data indicates
> a rate of 31.1 accidental deaths for every 10000 people per year.
> Accidents don't show up as a top 5 cause of death until 1961. The
> highest
> rate of accidental deaths they have ever recorded is 44.1/100000 people.
> At that rate, it will take 1571.4 years before any individual elf has
> even a 50% chance of dying from an accident. There are people who will
> say that this example is distorted by modern medicine, on the other
> hand,
> society today is considerably more likely to produce lethal accidents
> (Motor vehicles, electrical appliances).
> Data from the vital statistics page at :
> http://www.mhw.go.jp/english/database/populate/index.html
>
> > One of my other arguments was that they do not adventure at all. Meaning
> > that they do not get any experience at all. So it is not just 1/5th
> > slower, for most elves it is a lot more then that.
>
> This makes loads of sense. How many demihuman PC's sit out 4/5
> adventures, as compared to the human characters. I would suggest that
> you quit stereotyping your non-human races. I suggest that every race
> will show as much diversity of character as humans do. Therefore, some
> elves may not be interested in working at all (as some humans are). But
> some elves will be quite interested in performing services for their own
> people, exploring the world, or experimenting with magic.
>
> --
>
-
02-16-1999, 02:28 AM #9Kenneth GauckGuest
Elven longlivety
- -----Original Message-----
From: Pieter A de Jong
Date: Monday, February 15, 1999 4:27 PM
>.....stereotypical empty headed california valley girls.
Appreciation of aethetics is not empty headed. Indeed it approaches truth
more honestly than the material ever does.
-
02-16-1999, 02:56 AM #10Kenneth GauckGuest
Elven longlivety
- -----Original Message-----
From: Tim Nutting
Date: Monday, February 15, 1999 7:42 PM
>
>In the scientific mind, there is no room for something so esoteric and
>nonphysical as magic or religion. Nature would not select the long life
for
>the elves, magic would.
>
Magic is science, or more exactly, magic is outdated science. Turning base
metals into gold? It was once science. Communication with demons and the
dead, it was science. Divination- science. Herbalism- science, and its
come back into vogue. Inducing the properties of gems or animal parts-
science. All of this is not modern science, but it is science, and
therefore obeys some set of laws, even if they are not in agreement with
current understanding.
>The art of accupressure can achieve amazing results ...
I like this.
>IMC elves fully understand that humankind's only knowledge of real
>healing is "dear god please heal this man". Elves on the other
>hand know how to mend bones, set severe breaks, pull a fractured
>rib from a heart and promote healing, etc.
Why are humans so dull witted? Medicine goes back into the stone age on
Earth. Evidence of serious wounds healed is abundant. How is this
knowledge lost on humans in Cerilia, who in other ways evidence such
remarkable learning? Renaissance technology but pre-mesolitihic medicine?
Why?
>Add to this that they are __completely__ immune to biological diseases
>eliminates a major cause of death among humankind. Think about it: No
>Black Plague - EVER. A disease that killed at least 30% of europe will
>never touch them.
Kind of an argument against advanced medical knowledge, IMO.
>Hmmm, a new weapon fo the ghallie sidhe? Cerilian elves enter the fine art
>of biological warfare... It is recorded that one of the first attempts at
>this was a missionary during the colization of america who distributed
>blankets deliberately collected from children who had either been sick with
>or died of small pocks among the native american population. I think that
>man had more Gold in his heart than God...
And is milenia after other recorded accounts of similar behavior. This is
no where near the first of anything.
>
>I have argued time and again about the complete lack of realism displayed
by
>the level progression system of AD&D. Simply put it does not work for
>average people. If the game were true to life then because I didn't go
join
>the Navy SEALs I never could have learned to read, nor would I have
acquired
>an AA in English, nor would I have acquired any computer skills. Modern
vs.
>old? Think again, by the logic of AD&D, .....
D&D was designed to represent only adventurers. Other game systems spent
more time on basic skills accumulation for non-heroic types. D&D has never
really acknowledged the non-heroic types. It is not a universal system. It
does not explain all humans in Cerilia. Most poeple see little or no
advancement in THAC0 and HD, but see lots of increase in Proficencies. The
game does not discuss this advancement because it is assumed no one wants to
play a cook. At least a cook who does nothing but prepare meals.
Kenneth Gauck
c558382@earthlink.net
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