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  1. #11
    Pieter A de Jong
    Guest

    Long statistical analysis for #

    At 02:05 PM 6/30/98 -0400, J.D. Lail wrote:
    >Random Thoughts
    >
    >1)Here's a notion to consider when looking at the number of Mages. Because
    >of the fact that there is very little room for a new human blooded mage
    >(wizard) to acquire sources except in Rjurik or Vos territories there should
    >be an impetus for a wizard to emigrate south. Obviously to some extent this
    >is true of every class but not every race ! The elves can not do this. AFAIK
    >they did not exist anywhere else in the known parts of Aerbynnis.
    >
    >Given human breeding patterns and rates you need something like this to
    >partially explain why every human in Cerilia is not blooded. Actually
    >you need a lot more than this but that is another thread. :)
    >
    Do you care to explain point 1 in more detail, I'm not sure what the hell
    you are talking about

    >2)Some of you seem to saying that because all elves can cast true magic that
    >huge numbers of them should. If they were faced with imminent, overt,
    >extinction that might make more sense but that is is not the case*. If you
    >turned this around and applied it to the humans then all blooded non regents
    >should be wizards or priests. And of course any one with the intelligence to
    >be a simple mage would have to do so. This is not a scenario favorable to
    >the elves IMHO.
    >
    >*Simply put what the humans did was to breed real fast. By the time they
    >started to crowd the elves it was too late.
    >
    According to all literature on the subject, elven society is much more
    magical than human society. As there are no elven clerics, this implies
    large numbers of elven mages, especially as elven mages will have to fill
    the roles covered by priests in human societies (ie. judges (detect lie?),
    healers (curing spells), and leaders).
    As far as the scenario of all blooded humans being spellcasters and all
    elves being mages, it would not be that unfavorable. Remember, blooded
    humans are either 1/1000 or 1/10000 depending on your campaign. I don't
    think that the humans outnumber the elves by more than 10 or 20 to one.

    >3)Another point, Realm Magic, how did the elves learn to cast it ? The humans
    >had a God of Magic and his Priesthood to help them in their efforts to
    >learn. The Elves had nada and likely had to pick it up the old fashioned way
    >(i.e., steal it).
    >
    If you look closely at the book of magecraft the elves had realm magic
    before Deismaar, but had trouble controlling ley-lines to use it. The elves
    therefore had a magical tradition to fall back, as well as a more intimate
    connection to the ley lines and the lands mebhaigal.

    Pieter A de Jong
    Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
    University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

  2. #12
    einarh@fagerborg.vgs.n
    Guest

    Long statistical analysis for #

    >*Simply put what the humans did was to breed real fast. By the time they
    >started to crowd the elves it was too late.

    Just a thought. Wouldn't elven immortality at partially make up for that?
    (The old elves just don't die..)

    >3)Another point, Realm Magic, how did the elves learn to cast it ? The humans
    >had a God of Magic and his Priesthood to help them in their efforts to
    >learn. The Elves had nada and likely had to pick it up the old fashioned way
    >(i.e., steal it).

    You don't give elves any credit do you?
    They live in harmony with nature, and has a much stronger bond to the magic
    of the lands than humans have. And their intelligence average is *way*
    higher than humans.

    Off course, if all humans cooperated in killing the elves, they would
    partially succeed (the elves would have fled throught the forrest and gone
    somehwere.)
    But that is never going to happen:
    The humans are to treacherous and egocentric to ever cooperate in such a
    large scale.
    I would think even Michael Roele would have trouble keeping an empire
    consisting of all of anuire together, as everyone wants to be that number
    one. Sooner or later (probably sooner) the leader will be assassinated or
    killed in battle.
    Elves has a small advantage there, as they are more cooperative with each
    other than the humans, and would rather not hurt one of themselves.

    I, personally, think that the BR setting is a little to biased towards humans.
    I mean, look at it. The dwarves are dying out. There aren't many halfings
    (except in the shadow world (maybe)). Elves numbers are going down, and the
    humans are allowed to do as they please: Ie. make war upon everybody except
    halfings (that may change if anuireans or vos comes close enough).

    As for the Priest vs Wizard fight:
    In the earlier levels, priests would wack the wizzies.
    But after reaching about 9th, the wizards would be totally dominant.
    And after that, the wizards advantage only grows.
    I think there are two kinds of power here, the one of personal power and
    the power of the populance. As the mages get much of the first one, and the
    priests get a lot of the latter.

    I will agree to the fact that the number and level of elven wizards are
    high compared to humans, mainly because elves pass the initial tests for
    true magic almost automagically.
    They all have minimum 9 int, and all can cast true magic because of their
    tond to nature.
    And it doesn't say much about the spellsong (or whatever..) but I would
    presume that it would be somewhat similar to the songmage kit in the wizard
    handbook.
    Ie. they don't need material components, and that means that at every
    battle, they can cast their full allotment of spells, and not having to
    consider components.

    ( ---- Not that I will allow this to any of my players, before I've tested
    out the consequenses of such a spellcasting metod ---- )

    Another thing to take notice of:
    Somewhere within the books there is a notice about a new (?) type of elven
    magic, based on emotion control. If that is true, then elves will do
    considerably better in the future.

    I'm not biased toward any of the races, as the players ultemately decides
    what will happen. (Some players have got the gift of getting new and cool
    ideas all the time).
    It's just that this topic needs a healthy discussion, because it's a vital
    part to the balance of the whole of cerilia.
    (Some of you might say that this discussion is healthy enough =)

    Siebharrin the Lich, DoR - Anuire dm

  3. #13
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    Long statistical analysis for #

    2 replies for the price of one ! My reply to Einarh follows that to Pieter

    >From: Pieter A de Jong

    >>At 02:05 PM 6/30/98 -0400, J.D. Lail wrote:
    >>Random Thoughts
    >>
    >>1)Here's a notion to consider when looking at the number of Mages. Because
    >>of the fact that there is very little room for a new human blooded mage
    >>(wizard) to acquire sources except in Rjurik or Vos territories there should
    >>be an impetus for a wizard to emigrate south. Obviously to some extent this
    >>is true of every class but not every race ! The elves can not do this. AFAIK
    >>they did not exist anywhere else in the known parts of Aerbynnis.
    >>
    >>Given human breeding patterns and rates you need something like this to
    >>partially explain why every human in Cerilia is not blooded. Actually
    >>you need a lot more than this but that is another thread. :)

    >From: Pieter

    >Do you care to explain point 1 in more detail, I'm not sure what the hell
    >you are talking about

    Sure ! In the 1500 years since Deismar every human inhabitant of Cerilia
    should be able able to claim a descent from blooded ancestors unless you
    postulate a change in human nature or interpose a game mechanic to explain it.

    The authors did not create such a rule or provide any hint that the BR human was
    in any way different from his RL counterpart. To be blunt many men like sex so
    much that they will plonk any thing female whether they are married to her
    or not.
    Without birth control babies are made. Bloodlines spread and spread. To be sure
    they get diluted but then the men continue to spread the "pollen" and reinforce
    the spreading genome.

    What may come as a shock is how widely it spreads. Edward III of England for
    example had 3,000,000 documented descendants as of about 1950. Undocumented
    descendants would have added quite a bit to that number. That's only 600 years
    not 1500.

    IMHO opinion the designers simply overlooked this. If you would like to start
    a "find a way to limit the # of bloodlines" thread I will be happy to
    contribute.

    >>2)Some of you seem to saying that because all elves can cast true magic that
    >>huge numbers of them should.



    >According to all literature on the subject, elven society is much more
    >magical than human society.

    Pieter are you referring to BR elves or elves in general ?
    If it is the latter then I submit that it does not universally apply.
    If the former then I have yet to see any such mention in the rules I
    have access to which is everthing except the Players Secrets and
    adventures. BUT I could have missed something or possibly interpreted
    something differently. If so please give a referrence so we can be on
    the same page.

    >As there are no elven clerics, this implies large numbers of elven mages,
    >especially as elven mages will have to fill the roles covered by priests
    >in human societies (ie. judges (detect lie?), healers (curing spells),
    >and leaders).

    No Pieter, it implies no such thing. If that was the case we should have a
    whole list of spells just for elves that duplicate as much clerical magic
    as possible. There are none.

    However I can see see magic being used to do things like build, which, if you
    used tools might disturb the Mebhaighl. So I can see more wizards in elven
    society than a human one. The question is how many more.

    >As far as the scenario of all blooded humans being spellcasters and all
    >elves being mages, it would not be that unfavorable.

    Don't forget unblooded human mages and yes it would be unfavorable IMO.

    >Remember, blooded humans are either 1/1000 or 1/10000 depending on your
    >campaign.

    1% per p 32 of the rulebook. Is this changed elsewhere ?



    >>3)Another point, Realm Magic, how did the elves learn to cast it ?



    >If you look closely at the book of magecraft the elves had realm magic
    >before Deismaar, but had trouble controlling ley-lines to use it. The elves
    >therefore had a magical tradition to fall back, as well as a more intimate
    >connection to the ley lines and the lands mebhaigal.

    I read the BoM and what I saw did not read at all like you are saying. Please
    give me a reference and I'll see if I screwed up again. :)

    L8R
    ************************************************** **************************
    ********
    >From: einarh@fagerborg.vgs.no

    >>*Simply put what the humans did was to breed real fast. By the time they
    >>started to crowd the elves it was too late.

    >Just a thought. Wouldn't elven immortality at partially make up for that?
    >(The old elves just don't die..)

    Fantastically low birth rates I would think. As far as the eternal youth is
    concerned if it kept these people thinking they were eternal teenagers then
    they would scrag themselves in the ways that youth does these days. In this
    I am definitely postulating a behavior that is not based on a medieval model
    but rather a modern one since that is much closer to the elven case.

    >>3)Another point, Realm Magic, how did the elves learn to cast it ?


    >You don't give elves any credit do you?
    >They live in harmony with nature, and has a much stronger bond to the magic
    >of the lands than humans have.

    I see no game mechanic that reflects this.

    >And their intelligence average is *way* higher than humans.

    There are two ways to do this; the first is to simply change any roll
    that is less than an 8 to an 8. That gives an elven Int average of 10.8
    vs the human one of 10.5. The second way is to create a binomial disribution
    based on 2d6 plus 6 (8-18). That averages 13 which is 2.5 pts better than the
    human average. That is significant. As to which approach is correct I have not
    a clue. Any help out there ? Ed ? Carrie ?



    >I, personally, think that the BR setting is a little to biased towards humans.

    Yes, it was designed that way. Other worlds using standard AD&D are too
    biased towards elves imo.

    L8R

  4. #14
    darkstar
    Guest

    Long statistical analysis for #

    J. D. Lail wrote:

    > Sure ! In the 1500 years since Deismar every human inhabitant of Cerilia
    > should be able able to claim a descent from blooded ancestors unless you
    > postulate a change in human nature or interpose a game mechanic to explain it.
    >
    > The authors did not create such a rule or provide any hint that the BR human was
    > in any way different from his RL counterpart. To be blunt many men like sex so
    > much that they will plonk any thing female whether they are married to her
    > or not.
    > Without birth control babies are made. Bloodlines spread and spread. To be sure
    > they get diluted but then the men continue to spread the "pollen" and reinforce
    > the spreading genome.
    >
    > What may come as a shock is how widely it spreads. Edward III of England for
    > example had 3,000,000 documented descendants as of about 1950. Undocumented
    > descendants would have added quite a bit to that number. That's only 600 years
    > not 1500.

    One thing to remember however is that the Gorgon and other Awnsheghlien,
    not to mention more normal Scions spend a lot of their time running
    around trying to kill other blooded guys. This would cut down on the
    number of people with Bloodlines and is the main reason why there are
    not so many people with a bloodline around.
    In a game I ran one player would try to kill anyone he came across who
    had a bloodline simply to boost his own strenght, and he is not the only
    one. A lot of players will try to commit bloodtheft or divest scions
    they have captured. Now if NPC follow the ways of PC then the number of
    people with bloodlines is going to drop.
    I think this makes a suitible enough game mechanic for you to explain
    the low numbers of blooded characters in Cerilia.

    - --
    Ian Hoskins

    e-Mail: hoss@box.net.au
    Homepage: http://darkstar.cyberserv.com
    ICQ: 2938300

  5. #15
    Pieter A de Jong
    Guest

    Long statistical analysis for #

    At 01:40 PM 7/1/98 -0400, J.D. Lail wrote:
    >2 replies for the price of one ! My reply to Einarh follows that to Pieter
    >
    >>From: Pieter A de Jong
    >
    >>>At 02:05 PM 6/30/98 -0400, J.D. Lail wrote:
    >>>Random Thoughts
    >>>
    >>>1)Here's a notion to consider when looking at the number of Mages. Because
    >>>of the fact that there is very little room for a new human blooded mage
    >>>(wizard) to acquire sources except in Rjurik or Vos territories there should
    >>>be an impetus for a wizard to emigrate south. Obviously to some extent this
    >>>is true of every class but not every race ! The elves can not do this. AFAIK
    >>>they did not exist anywhere else in the known parts of Aerbynnis.
    >>>
    >>>Given human breeding patterns and rates you need something like this to
    >>>partially explain why every human in Cerilia is not blooded. Actually
    >>>you need a lot more than this but that is another thread. :)
    >
    >>From: Pieter
    >
    >>Do you care to explain point 1 in more detail, I'm not sure what the hell
    >>you are talking about
    >
    >Sure ! In the 1500 years since Deismar every human inhabitant of Cerilia
    >should be able able to claim a descent from blooded ancestors unless you
    >postulate a change in human nature or interpose a game mechanic to explain it.
    >
    >The authors did not create such a rule or provide any hint that the BR
    human was
    >in any way different from his RL counterpart. To be blunt many men like sex so
    >much that they will plonk any thing female whether they are married to her
    >or not.
    >Without birth control babies are made. Bloodlines spread and spread. To be sure
    >they get diluted but then the men continue to spread the "pollen" and reinforce
    >the spreading genome.
    >
    >What may come as a shock is how widely it spreads. Edward III of England for
    >example had 3,000,000 documented descendants as of about 1950. Undocumented
    >descendants would have added quite a bit to that number. That's only 600 years
    >not 1500.
    >
    >IMHO opinion the designers simply overlooked this. If you would like to start
    >a "find a way to limit the # of bloodlines" thread I will be happy to
    >contribute.
    >
    Well I have 3 problems here. 1) I actually wanted you to explain that
    migrate south comment ie. are you saying that the blooded are leaving
    vosgaard/Rjurik/Brectur and going to Anuire and Khinasi, or are you
    proposing a migration from Cerilia to Aduria (the southern continent they
    came from). 2) If one guy has 3 million descentdants in 600 years, never
    mind 1500, something has seriously been thinning the population, cause the
    huan population of Cerilia is estimated at 8 million (see the work of Jan
    Arnoldus, the flying dutchman). 3) Bloodline dilution is going to get rid of
    most of these guys after ~ 10 generations.





    >>>2)Some of you seem to saying that because all elves can cast true magic that
    >>>huge numbers of them should.
    >
    >
    >
    >>According to all literature on the subject, elven society is much more
    >>magical than human society.
    >
    > Pieter are you referring to BR elves or elves in general ?
    > If it is the latter then I submit that it does not universally apply.
    > If the former then I have yet to see any such mention in the rules I
    > have access to which is everthing except the Players Secrets and
    > adventures. BUT I could have missed something or possibly interpreted
    > something differently. If so please give a referrence so we can be on
    > the same page.
    >
    BOM, pg 5. " Magic is as familiar and non-threatening to them as windmills
    and waterwheels are to humans". How common are windmills and waterwheels in
    human culture? There is one at least every couple of villages and even more
    perhaps even more commonly, as the birthright setting is set just barely
    before the renaissance.



    >>As there are no elven clerics, this implies large numbers of elven mages,
    >>especially as elven mages will have to fill the roles covered by priests
    >>in human societies (ie. judges (detect lie?), healers (curing spells),
    >>and leaders).
    >
    >No Pieter, it implies no such thing. If that was the case we should have a
    >whole list of spells just for elves that duplicate as much clerical magic
    >as possible. There are none.
    >
    BOM, pg5, "Sidhelien wizards, as beings who command mebhaigal, hold
    positions of respect and influence in elf communities. They serve a role in
    society, just as taelinri (teachers), philosophers,..."



    >However I can see see magic being used to do things like build, which, if you
    >used tools might disturb the Mebhaighl. So I can see more wizards in elven
    >society than a human one. The question is how many more.
    >
    >>As far as the scenario of all blooded humans being spellcasters and all
    >>elves being mages, it would not be that unfavorable.
    >
    >Don't forget unblooded human mages and yes it would be unfavorable IMO.
    >
    >>Remember, blooded humans are either 1/1000 or 1/10000 depending on your
    >>campaign.
    >
    >1% per p 32 of the rulebook. Is this changed elsewhere ?
    >
    Look at the population distribution given in the players secrets of Muden,
    as posted by I forget who ~ 260 blooded people, ~ 250000 people. I prefer
    an even more rarefied level of bloodline, because otherwise anytime a
    blooded person has more than 2 kids, the amount of godly essence in
    aebrynnis is increasing. As I tie a gods power to the number of worshippers
    the god has, this seems kind of strange.

    >
    >
    >>>3)Another point, Realm Magic, how did the elves learn to cast it ?
    >
    >
    >
    >>If you look closely at the book of magecraft the elves had realm magic
    >>before Deismaar, but had trouble controlling ley-lines to use it. The elves
    >>therefore had a magical tradition to fall back, as well as a more intimate
    >>connection to the ley lines and the lands mebhaigal.
    >
    >I read the BoM and what I saw did not read at all like you are saying. Please
    >give me a reference and I'll see if I screwed up again. :)
    >
    BOM p24, Heading caerbhaighlien, read the two un-italicized paragraphs below
    it, and BOM p26, Heading ancient ley lines , "A very small number of ley
    lines used by the elves in the centuries before the Deismaar cataclysm remain."




    >L8R
    >************************************************* ***************************
    >********
    >>From: einarh@fagerborg.vgs.no
    >
    >>>*Simply put what the humans did was to breed real fast. By the time they
    >>>started to crowd the elves it was too late.
    >
    >>Just a thought. Wouldn't elven immortality at partially make up for that?
    >>(The old elves just don't die..)
    >
    >Fantastically low birth rates I would think. As far as the eternal youth is
    >concerned if it kept these people thinking they were eternal teenagers then
    >they would scrag themselves in the ways that youth does these days. In this
    >I am definitely postulating a behavior that is not based on a medieval model
    >but rather a modern one since that is much closer to the elven case.
    >
    >>>3)Another point, Realm Magic, how did the elves learn to cast it ?
    >
    >
    >>You don't give elves any credit do you?
    >>They live in harmony with nature, and has a much stronger bond to the magic
    >>of the lands than humans have.
    >
    >I see no game mechanic that reflects this.
    >
    >>And their intelligence average is *way* higher than humans.
    >
    >There are two ways to do this; the first is to simply change any roll
    >that is less than an 8 to an 8. That gives an elven Int average of 10.8
    >vs the human one of 10.5. The second way is to create a binomial disribution
    >based on 2d6 plus 6 (8-18). That averages 13 which is 2.5 pts better than the
    >human average. That is significant. As to which approach is correct I have not
    >a clue. Any help out there ? Ed ? Carrie ?
    >
    >
    >
    >>I, personally, think that the BR setting is a little to biased towards humans.
    >
    >Yes, it was designed that way. Other worlds using standard AD&D are too
    >biased towards elves imo.
    >
    >L8R
    >
    >************************************************* **************************
    >>'unsubscribe birthright' as the body of the message.
    >

    Pieter A de Jong
    Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
    University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

  6. #16
    David Sean Brown
    Guest

    Long statistical analysis for #

    > >>If you look closely at the book of magecraft the elves had realm magic
    > >>before Deismaar, but had trouble controlling ley-lines to use it. The elves
    > >>therefore had a magical tradition to fall back, as well as a more intimate
    > >>connection to the ley lines and the lands mebhaigal.
    > >
    > >I read the BoM and what I saw did not read at all like you are saying. Please
    > >give me a reference and I'll see if I screwed up again. :)
    > >
    > BOM p24, Heading caerbhaighlien, read the two un-italicized paragraphs below
    > it, and BOM p26, Heading ancient ley lines , "A very small number of ley
    > lines used by the elves in the centuries before the Deismaar cataclysm remain."
    >
    This doesn't imply at all that the elves had any trouble using the ley
    lines..all it does say is that of the ones they did use, very few remain
    today...

  7. #17
    Pieter A de Jong
    Guest

    Long statistical analysis for #

    At 04:26 PM 7/2/98 -0300, David Sean Brown wrote:
    >> >>If you look closely at the book of magecraft the elves had realm magic
    >> >>before Deismaar, but had trouble controlling ley-lines to use it. The
    elves
    >> >>therefore had a magical tradition to fall back, as well as a more intimate
    >> >>connection to the ley lines and the lands mebhaigal.
    >> >
    >> >I read the BoM and what I saw did not read at all like you are saying.
    Please
    >> >give me a reference and I'll see if I screwed up again. :)
    >> >
    >> BOM p24, Heading caerbhaighlien, read the two un-italicized paragraphs below
    >> it, and BOM p26, Heading ancient ley lines , "A very small number of ley
    >> lines used by the elves in the centuries before the Deismaar cataclysm
    remain."
    >>
    >This doesn't imply at all that the elves had any trouble using the ley
    >lines..all it does say is that of the ones they did use, very few remain
    >today...
    >
    The whole of the original post disputed that the elves had access to realm
    magic in pre-Deismaar times and therefore because humans have a god of
    magic, humans should have more advanced realm magic. I dispute this view
    because I believe that the elves had realm magic before Deismaar. As only
    realm magic requires ley-lines, those two references imply that the elves
    had realm magic before Deismaar. Which also reinforces my theory that
    something extraordinary happened in the 1st Elven-Human war, as humans
    requires bloodlines to use either clerical or magical realm magic and
    therefore should not have had access to realm magic before Deismaar.

    Pieter A de Jong
    Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
    University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

  8. #18
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    Long statistical analysis for #

    I will be off-line until Monday July 13th (est.) when I will further
    respond to this thread. We thank you for your support. :)

    L8R

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