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Thread: Population of Anuire at Desimaar
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03-22-2003, 01:42 AM #1
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Ok, I decided to try and estimate the population of Anuire at the time of
Deismaar.
Lets make some simplifying assumptions. First that the population levels for
the provinces occupied by the Andu were half their current "level value."
This seems pretty good as a first approach, because although we might expect
much more growth than this during the height of the empire, the population
level may have fallen somewhat since that time due to wars and conflict in
the recent era. However, the population model I am using is Gary`s from the
Cerilian Census repost a few days ago, and the population scale there is not
linear, so a decrease in the province "level" indicates a greater than half
reduction in actual population. To somewhat alleviate this, I will retain
fractions and estimate population sizes for "half-levels" as well as full
levels.
Second, that the Andu at this time were occupying only the plains provinces
of their area. This makes sense to me, but YMMV. This allows me to disclude
provinces which have any little hill or mountain symbols, or include more
than half forest or swamp area.
Further, I can exclude areas which we know the Anuireans did not settle
until later. This includes Talinie (which the Timeline says was colonized in
Imperial times), Endier (which was part of the Spiderfell), and Dhoesone
(which was a Rjuvik state at the time). I suspect that we can make a case
that Coeranys ought to be excluded, too, but we`ll keep it in, as it meets
all other criteria, and counterbalances Cariele which probably should be
included but is excluded due to the forestation criteria above.
When I do the calculations, I get a population estimate of 302,500 persons.
Let`s say that slightly more than half of the population are male (due to
child-birth related fatalities in females), giving us 152,500 males. Of the
males, let`s say that the Anuirean mobilized all that were not decrepit with
age or younger than 10, so perhaps 70% of the male population. This would
give us an Andu army of slightly more than 100,000 (106,750). Further, let`s
say they were sufficiently motivated that they also mobilized all females
that were neither decrepit, younger than 10, or responsible for dependent
children. Perhaps 20% of the female population, or 30,000 female warriors
joined, making the total 136,750.
These numbers seem reasonable to me, so perhaps there were 100,000 to
150,000 Andu at the battle, and a somewhat smaller but comparable number of
the other tribes. Let`s say 150,000 Andu, 100,000 Rjuvik, 100,000 Brecht,
and 75,000 Masetians, for a total of 425,000 combatants. Let`s further say
that there were 50,000 Vos present (on Azrai`s side), and a like number of
elves, and that all the rest of Azrai`s army fled south rather than north
and do not contribute to Cerilia. This indicates that the pool of potential
blooded people is just above 500,000 (525,000).
Ok, let`s say that the battle decimates that pool, leaving 50,000, of which
10% gain a bloodline. That makes 5,000 instant scions. If the natural
disasters following the event kills half of the survivors of the battle, we
get 2,500 scions and 22,500 unblooded veterans.
If cultural groups survive in the proportions at which they were present,
this would leave us with:
714 blooded Andu
476 blooded Rjuvik
476 blooded Brecht
357 blooded Masetians
238 blooded Vos
238 blooded Elves
This still seems pretty high to me, but perhaps it`s workable. Let`s try it
with 1000 scions surviving Deismaar (1 in 5):
286 blooded Andu
190 blooded Rjuvik
190 blooded Brecht
143 blooded Masetians
95 blooded Vos
95 blooded Elves
Ok, this maybe does seem a bit low, at least for the Vos and the Elves. Do
we know: are there more than 95 blooded elves listed in the material? That
is certainly the group for which we would expect the least growth in the
last 1500 years.
Comments or quibbles?
Mark V.
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03-22-2003, 10:16 AM #2
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Mark VanderMeulen wrote:
>Further, I can exclude areas which we know the Anuireans did not settle
>until later. This includes Talinie (which the Timeline says was colonized in
>Imperial times), Endier (which was part of the Spiderfell), and Dhoesone
>(which was a Rjuvik state at the time). I suspect that we can make a case
>that Coeranys ought to be excluded, too, but we`ll keep it in, as it meets
>all other criteria, and counterbalances Cariele which probably should be
>included but is excluded due to the forestation criteria above.
>
Should be included? I see Cariele not settled by humans before the 7th
Cavallery died at the Little Big Horn ähm the Anuirean Legion was
ambushed and annihilated by the sidhelien at the Gates of Doom
(Mhellivene) which opened the mountain pass to first get into the area
of Cariele. And having an Anuirean Legion would indicate that the Empire
already existed as in your statement about Talinie.
>When I do the calculations, I get a population estimate of 302,500 persons.
>Let`s say that slightly more than half of the population are male (due to
>child-birth related fatalities in females), giving us 152,500 males. Of the
>males, let`s say that the Anuirean mobilized all that were not decrepit with
>age or younger than 10, so perhaps 70% of the male population. This would
>give us an Andu army of slightly more than 100,000 (106,750). Further, let`s
>say they were sufficiently motivated that they also mobilized all females
>that were neither decrepit, younger than 10, or responsible for dependent
>children. Perhaps 20% of the female population, or 30,000 female warriors
>joined, making the total 136,750.
>
Have you considered, that Mhoried was not settled immediately with the
other areas, but was a goblin kingdom that first had to be conquered?
>Ok, this maybe does seem a bit low, at least for the Vos and the Elves. Do
>we know: are there more than 95 blooded elves listed in the material? That
>is certainly the group for which we would expect the least growth in the
>last 1500 years.
>Comments or quibbles?
>
Elves are no problem. Calculate any number and if it is too high, then
all those elves vanished in Sideath or Tuar Awhn ;-)
bye
Michael Romes
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03-22-2003, 12:44 PM #3
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> Have you considered, that Mhoried was not settled immediately with the
> other areas, but was a goblin kingdom that first had to be conquered?
I seem to remember reading somewhere that the 2nd emperor is the one that
granted the lands of Mhoried to the first "Mhor", so that would seem to
support that idea. I can`t remember where I read that, though. It might
have been in the Falcon and the Wolf.
-Anakin Miller
-------------------------
"What was sundered, shall be remade.
What was stolen, shall be avenged. "
- Engraved on the Crown of Diemed
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with UNSUB BIRTHRIGHT-L in the body of the message.Who are you to speak to me of loneliness, you who have not suffered as I have suffered. My father was lord of the Andu, ruler of a million souls, but not once did he ever claim me as his son. All those years I waited for a single word from him, a simple acknowledgment of my birthright. But, not even on his death bed did he claim me as his. So do not speak to me of your loneliness, you who have never been as alone as I have been all my life.
- Prince Raesene Andu, -2 HC.
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03-22-2003, 12:57 PM #4
-515 HC The Flight from Shadow. The human tribes of Aduria begin their migration to Cerilia. The Mhora, Third House of the Andu tribe, arrive and settle in the lands that will become Mhoried.
-508 HC The first recorded Mhor, Maglan, swears before the Red Oak.
-400 HC Height of the gheallie Sidhe. The Mhora fight against the elves and the goblin-kingdom of Kar-Durgar.
-166 HC The Mhora raze Kar-Durgar, finally defeating the goblins. The lands between the Stonebyrn and the Maesil become known as Mhoried.
-2 HC War of Shadow opens, as Azrai’s forces begin an assault on all of Cerilia.
0 HC Battle of Deismaar; Mhor Daegan slain in battle, but his son Raedan touched by the divine power.
1 HC Upon taking the oaths before the Red Oak, Mhor Raedan forges the link between Mhor and land.
70 HC Mhor Endira, granddaughter of Raedan, offers allegiance to Boeric Roele, formally incorporating Mhoried in the Anuirean Empire.
71 HC Birth of Thendiere Mhoried, son of Endira and Boeric. The Mhoried claim to the Iron Throne is traced through him.Let me claim your Birthright!!
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03-22-2003, 01:48 PM #5
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Atarikid wrote:
>>Have you considered, that Mhoried was not settled immediately with the
>>other areas, but was a goblin kingdom that first had to be conquered?
>>
>
>I seem to remember reading somewhere that the 2nd emperor is the one that
>granted the lands of Mhoried to the first "Mhor", so that would seem to
>support that idea. I can`t remember where I read that, though. It might
>have been in the Falcon and the Wolf.
>-Anakin Miller
>
Browsing through I found Dragon Magazin (241) had the Chronicle of
Cerilia and gives this dates for Mhoried:
-508 HC Mhor Maglan begins rule of Mhors in Mhoried
-166 HC The Mhora raze Kar-Durgar (I assume that this is the end of the
former goblin kingdom)
70 HC Mhor Endira swears allegiance to Boeric Roele, formally
incorparating Mhoried into Anuirean Empire
bye
Michael Romes
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03-22-2003, 10:56 PM #6
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At 06:27 AM 3/22/2003 -0600, you wrote:
>> Have you considered, that Mhoried was not settled immediately with the
>> other areas, but was a goblin kingdom that first had to be conquered?
>
>I seem to remember reading somewhere that the 2nd emperor is the one that
>granted the lands of Mhoried to the first "Mhor", so that would seem to
>support that idea. I can`t remember where I read that, though. It might
>have been in the Falcon and the Wolf.
Endira Mhoried. I think it`s just in Ruins of Empire.. I`ve never read
Falcon and the Wolf, but I do know this fact.
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03-25-2003, 12:17 AM #7
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> -----Original Message-----
> From: Birthright Roleplaying Game Discussion
> [mailto:BIRTHRIGHT-L@ORACLE.WIZARDS.COM]On Behalf Of Michael Romes
> Should be included? I see Cariele not settled by humans before the 7th
> Cavallery died at the Little Big Horn ähm the Anuirean Legion was
> ambushed and annihilated by the sidhelien at the Gates of Doom
> (Mhellivene) which opened the mountain pass to first get into the area
> of Cariele. And having an Anuirean Legion would indicate that the Empire
> already existed as in your statement about Talinie.
Well, that`s a good point. I was going with the idea that Cariele was one of
the 12 houses of the Andu before the empire, and so had an "ancestral
range," but I suppose that range may have been further south. Or perhaps
they were just a very small house, and it was only after they had grown in
size that they claimed newly-opened land in the Empire.
Mark V.
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