Ok, I decided to try and estimate the population of Anuire at the time of
Deismaar.

Lets make some simplifying assumptions. First that the population levels for
the provinces occupied by the Andu were half their current "level value."
This seems pretty good as a first approach, because although we might expect
much more growth than this during the height of the empire, the population
level may have fallen somewhat since that time due to wars and conflict in
the recent era. However, the population model I am using is Gary`s from the
Cerilian Census repost a few days ago, and the population scale there is not
linear, so a decrease in the province "level" indicates a greater than half
reduction in actual population. To somewhat alleviate this, I will retain
fractions and estimate population sizes for "half-levels" as well as full
levels.

Second, that the Andu at this time were occupying only the plains provinces
of their area. This makes sense to me, but YMMV. This allows me to disclude
provinces which have any little hill or mountain symbols, or include more
than half forest or swamp area.

Further, I can exclude areas which we know the Anuireans did not settle
until later. This includes Talinie (which the Timeline says was colonized in
Imperial times), Endier (which was part of the Spiderfell), and Dhoesone
(which was a Rjuvik state at the time). I suspect that we can make a case
that Coeranys ought to be excluded, too, but we`ll keep it in, as it meets
all other criteria, and counterbalances Cariele which probably should be
included but is excluded due to the forestation criteria above.

When I do the calculations, I get a population estimate of 302,500 persons.
Let`s say that slightly more than half of the population are male (due to
child-birth related fatalities in females), giving us 152,500 males. Of the
males, let`s say that the Anuirean mobilized all that were not decrepit with
age or younger than 10, so perhaps 70% of the male population. This would
give us an Andu army of slightly more than 100,000 (106,750). Further, let`s
say they were sufficiently motivated that they also mobilized all females
that were neither decrepit, younger than 10, or responsible for dependent
children. Perhaps 20% of the female population, or 30,000 female warriors
joined, making the total 136,750.

These numbers seem reasonable to me, so perhaps there were 100,000 to
150,000 Andu at the battle, and a somewhat smaller but comparable number of
the other tribes. Let`s say 150,000 Andu, 100,000 Rjuvik, 100,000 Brecht,
and 75,000 Masetians, for a total of 425,000 combatants. Let`s further say
that there were 50,000 Vos present (on Azrai`s side), and a like number of
elves, and that all the rest of Azrai`s army fled south rather than north
and do not contribute to Cerilia. This indicates that the pool of potential
blooded people is just above 500,000 (525,000).

Ok, let`s say that the battle decimates that pool, leaving 50,000, of which
10% gain a bloodline. That makes 5,000 instant scions. If the natural
disasters following the event kills half of the survivors of the battle, we
get 2,500 scions and 22,500 unblooded veterans.

If cultural groups survive in the proportions at which they were present,
this would leave us with:

714 blooded Andu
476 blooded Rjuvik
476 blooded Brecht
357 blooded Masetians
238 blooded Vos
238 blooded Elves

This still seems pretty high to me, but perhaps it`s workable. Let`s try it
with 1000 scions surviving Deismaar (1 in 5):

286 blooded Andu
190 blooded Rjuvik
190 blooded Brecht
143 blooded Masetians
95 blooded Vos
95 blooded Elves

Ok, this maybe does seem a bit low, at least for the Vos and the Elves. Do
we know: are there more than 95 blooded elves listed in the material? That
is certainly the group for which we would expect the least growth in the
last 1500 years.

Comments or quibbles?

Mark V.

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