Gross Production/BR economic theory

[Lawgiver]

Originally posted by ryancaveney
Cows don`t live forever, grain rots and labor cannot be saved up in
batteries, so even a regent with many GB in the treasury cannot really
have withdrawn that wealth from circulation -- because if it were
truly left static, it would cease to be wealth.

Yes, but what of property, landmarks, wine, statues, tapestries, paintings, jewelry, etc. Such possessions can actually appreciate in value rather than depreciate or deteriorate over the course of time. One’s wealth and treasury need not be bags of coins, nor does it need to be in perishable goods.

[Birthright-L]

I`ve been following this thread for some time now, and I just want to pipe
in now. The GB system was left abstract for a reason. It is well and fine
to try to generate all sorts of different tables, calculations, etc. for the
economic system; but the essence is that it was a simplified economy system
for a reason. The joy of Birthright isn`t statistics, economics, and
taxation; but ruling a shining/dark kingdom and sending forth your servants
and armies to do your will! Don`t over-reach the original too much, or you
lose sight of what it is all about. Just an opinion of mine though; if you
want to trudge thru hours of paperwork before you get down to taking on the
Gorgon, Spider, or Rhoubhe Manslayer then enjoy yourself. Me, I`ll be out
kicking butt and looting the enemy!

~Caelcormac of Rhoisneibhal
Grand Master of Lluabraight
Prince of the Downs Vassals
Master of the Hunt of the Elves

(aka Tony Edwards.....Joe-shmo in Virginia)

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[kgauck]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Lawgiver" <brnetboard@TUARHIEVEL.ORG>
Sent: Monday, January 06, 2003 1:17 PM

> Yes, but what of property, landmarks, wine, statues, tapestries,
> paintings, jewelry, etc. Such possessions can actually appreciate
> in value rather than depreciate or deteriorate over the course of
> time. One`s wealth and treasury need not be bags of coins, nor
> does it need to be in perishable goods.

Ryan will correct me if I am wrong, but I think he was refering to
productive wealth, as opposed to trapped wealth, whcih he called "static".
Of your examples above, only wine still has an economic use (as a
consumable). The rest are only trapped labor or objects of value.
Productive wealth is wealth that can produce more wealth. The classic
catagories are land, labor, and capital. Luxury items (and militaries for
that matter) are none of these. At least the wine has nutritional value.

A great deal of what nobles and templars produce is of no further economic
value. Crowns and stained glass windows have no ability to produce new
wealth. They may have important social roles (this man is in charge, that
window depicts his role model), but no real economic value. Looking over
most game actions, few of them are intended to produce new wealth. They are
consumptions of wealth. There are some notable exceptions (roads, for
example).

Kenneth Gauck
kgauck@mchsi.com

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[ryancaveney]

On Tue, 7 Jan 2003, Kenneth Gauck wrote:

> From: "Lawgiver" <brnetboard@TUARHIEVEL.ORG>
>
> > Yes, but what of property, landmarks, wine, statues, tapestries,
> > paintings, jewelry, etc. Such possessions can actually appreciate
>
> Ryan will correct me if I am wrong, but I think he was refering to
> productive wealth, as opposed to trapped wealth, whcih he called "static".

Some of both. It is true that as Lawgiver says, some wealth is not
perishable, and therefore storable as-is -- everybody likes to hoard gold
when they can, and pawning the crown jewels to finance the war is a
time-honored tradition -- but it is also true that as Kenneth says, while
art may appreciate, land pays dividends. While regents who want to have a
large reserve for a rainy day may wish to keep a museum as a bank account,
there is always the difficulty of finding enough appropriate buyers on
short notice. This is, to a degree, represented in the Finance action:
mercenaries are not known for accepting paintings as payment, so you must
spend some time and effort looking for rich people with money to burn and
a desire to redecorate. I would almost say that "fine art" is actually
part of the GB expense of maintaining a court -- building Versailles gives
substantial bonuses to Diplomacy, but is a serious drain on the privy
purse. Things are only worth what you can get people to pay for them, and
the market in luxury goods is small enough that a sudden glut can greatly
exceed demand; trying to convert lots of art into ready cash quickly can
cause a great deal of the paper appreciation to evaporate. In times of
national emergency, you will probably end up selling art at a loss.

Investment in land is mostly represented by province level. This leads me
into an interesting and almost anti-feudal take on "all the people are
already there" -- perhaps we could say the province level represents the
amount of land in the regent`s own demesne, and the balance land not
directly answerable to him. One way this can happen is when regents are
in need of immediate cash -- the only explicit figures I`ve read concern
England in the time of Edward I, where land generally sold for a price
equal to 20 years` income from it. This leads to the specter of players
selling province levels for 80 GB each, which is a huge sum -- but at the
cost of lowering RP and GB collection. OTOH, it would have to cause
serious changes in the Rule Province action -- perhaps you`d need almost
that much gold to buy it back again? Confiscations were certainly not
unknown, but do it too often and no buyers will be willing to risk it.

> Productive wealth is wealth that can produce more wealth. The classic
> categories are land, labor, and capital. Luxury items (and militaries
> for that matter) are none of these.

The Magian seems to have grasped the point about the military, in that
fully half of his army consists of building engineers, who I suspect spend
much of their time on public works projects.

> At least the wine has nutritional value.

And you may be able to persuade mercenaries to accept it in lieu of
specie, though you probably wouldn`t want to pay them in it until they
were well outside of town... =)

> A great deal of what nobles and templars produce is of no further
> economic value. Crowns and stained glass windows have no ability to
> produce new wealth.

Pedantically, the nobles and templars consume those -- it is the skilled
craftsmen of the cities (who are most closely related to guilders) who
produce them. The nobles really produce nothing but demands, and a few
elite warriors. The same is probably true of some religions (Cuiraecen
and Belinik, for example) but much less so of others (Erik`s druids are
likely crucial to Rjurik food production).

> They may have important social roles (this man is in charge, that
> window depicts his role model), but no real economic value.

Which means regents ought to be very reluctant to part with them.
Consider the message it sends -- if he is desperate enough to sell, does
that imply he no longer has what it takes to be in charge, and that he is
incapable of living up to his role model`s example? If he sells several
pieces at once, this can reinforce the supply-demand mismatch to depress
prices even further -- since holding a garage sale at the Louvre is a
clear sign of impending doom, the buyers know they`ve got the regent over
a barrel, and are in a powerful negotiating position to obtain national
treasures at bargain-basement prices.

> Looking over most game actions, few of them are intended to produce
> new wealth. They are consumptions of wealth. There are some notable
> exceptions (roads, for example).

Yes, Build Road, Trade Route and Rule are the only real investments
available. Building an army of conquest might be, but it`s a risky one.
Mostly the military is insurance, not investment. Realm spells like Bless
Land and Gold Rush don`t really count, since they don`t increase future
income; they are really just another (albeit much more efficient) form of
Alchemy, which turns an action and some RP into GB, right now.


Ryan Caveney

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[Lawgiver]

I believe that some of my statements are being taken out of context and construed in a manner that differs from their intention. I’m not saying the new world economy of Birthright is luxury items. All I’m really trying to say is that not everything in an economic system of barter need be agrarian in base. Chickens, corn, barley, cows, etc. are not the only form of “money”. Neither is a gp the sole source of payment or tender accepted in Birthright.

Additionally, I am trying to say is that not all of the GBs in the collection/taxation phase are directly related to “production”. The velocity or transfer of wealth has a good deal to do with it.

I do however believe that luxury items can play a significant factor in “production”, provided there is sufficient demand and a limited supply the product. A master artisan can take a few silver pieces worth of materials and create a masterpiece worth hundred or thousands of gp.

According to the PHB a “wagon” costs approximately 350 gp = 3500 sp. (Of course there is some economic differences in the PHB and Birthright prices). How long does it take to build a wagon? Even if it takes 3 guys an entire year they have already far exceeded the 360 sp “average production rate” of a common citizen as proposed by Daniel McSorley in the original post.

How many suits of armor, swords, spears, etc can a man make in a year?
How many tunics, hats, shoes, etc. can a man make in a year?
How many horseshoes, plows, axes, etc. can a man make in a year?
How many bowls, pots, buckets, etc. can a man make in a year?
How many homes, barns, sheds, silos, business, etc. can a man build in a year?

Don’t take this the wrong way, but I’m not really in the mood nor to I wish to invest the time in developing a consumer price index or the GNP for the various regions Birthright campaign setting. :)

In answer to Daniel McSorley’s original question, if you view the economy as solely based on agriculture you will NEVER have the “surplus” to reach the income generated in your example. If however, you consider some of the factors I have mentioned it is possible to at least achieve a good portion of the “production”.

[ConjurerDragon]

>
>
>Cows don`t live forever, grain rots and labor cannot be saved up in
>batteries, so even a regent with many GB in the treasury cannot really
>have withdrawn that wealth from circulation -- because if it were
>truly left static, it would cease to be wealth.
>Ryan Caveney
>
A silly question from me: Grain rots did you write - I know nearly
nothing about agriculture but I remember
the 7 good and 7 dire years in egypt from the bible :-)

Doesn´t that mean that grain in silos can survive years (or most of it)?
Or is a dry climate as in egypt necessary to prevent rotting?
bye
Michael

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[kgauck]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Romes" <Archmage@T-ONLINE.DE>
Sent: Tuesday, January 07, 2003 4:15 PM

> A silly question from me: Grain rots did you write - I know
> nearly nothing about agriculture but I remember
> the 7 good and 7 dire years in egypt from the bible :-)
>
> Doesn´t that mean that grain in silos can survive years (or most of it)?
> Or is a dry climate as in egypt necessary to prevent rotting?

Between wet weather, moist air, and rats, grain does not store well at all.
Grain molds (one of which LSD is derived from) were a perrenial problem in
France. While storage facilities would be useful anywhere, the return on
investment is probabaly much higher in Khinasi where the weather cooperates
(at least in the west).

Kenneth Gauck
kgauck@mchsi.com

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[Lawgiver]

A silly question from me: Grain rots did you write - I know nearly
nothing about agriculture but I remember
the 7 good and 7 dire years in egypt from the bible :-)

Doesn´t that mean that grain in silos can survive years (or most of it)?
Or is a dry climate as in egypt necessary to prevent rotting?
bye
Michael

You sparked my interest and I've always had the same question about the story of Joseph...

Quick research yeilded the following extract from http://waltonfeed.com/grain/life.html

The Soft Grains - like Barley,Hulled or Pearled Oat, Groats, Rolled Oats, Quinoa, & Rye

Soft Grains have softer outer shells which don't protect the seed interior as well as hard shelled seeds and therefore won't store as long. Hermetically sealed in the absence of oxygen, plan on a storage life of 8 years at a stable temperature of 70 degrees F. They should keep proportionately longer if stored at cooler temperatures.

The Hard Grains - like Buckwheat, Corn, Dry Flax, Kamut, Millet, Durum wheat, Hard red wheat, Hard white wheat, Soft wheat, Special bake wheat, Spelt, Triticale

The Hard Grains all store well because of their hard outer shell which is nature's near perfect container. Remove that container and the contents rapidly deteriorate. Wheat, probably nature's longest storing seed, has been known to be edible after scores of years when stored in a cool dry place. As a general rule for hard grains, hermetically sealed in the absence of oxygen, plan on a storage life of 10-12 years at a stable temperature of 70 degrees F. They should keep proportionately longer if stored at cooler temperatures.

[Eric Saxon]

Originally posted by ryancaveney
Cows don`t live forever, grain rots and labor cannot be saved up in
batteries, so even a regent with many GB in the treasury cannot really
have withdrawn that wealth from circulation -- because if it were
truly left static, it would cease to be wealth.

I don't believe cows to be a perishable good. Ask any rancher today and he will tell you. So, how do you keep the cows, well use some of those goods, to actually purchase lands, for the crown. Then have tenant farmers, start using the cattle to breed, vast herds of cattle and whatever profits they bring will easily pay for their upkeep.

As for grain, well maybe you have that grain turned into flour. A lot easier to store flour than grain, so why would you care about flour rotting, especially, since you could probably trade it for some other valuable comodity. As for labor, when you figure that noblemen, liked to live high of the horse, eventually you are going to be able to use the resources you granted them, to force them to provide you with labor to do whatever you want done, for free.

[ryancaveney]

Michael Romes wrote:

> Doesn`t that mean that grain in silos can survive years (or most of it)?
> Or is a dry climate as in egypt necessary to prevent rotting?

Dry climate certainly helps. However, warm climate hurts. In any case,
since rotting is a continuous and relative process, after seven years of
famine you are likely to be willing to eat grain of a quality so low you`d
have been hesitant to feed it to pigs in the seventh year of good times.
Desperation can really lower your standards.

On Wed, 8 Jan 2003, Lawgiver wrote:

> Quick research yeilded the following extract from
> http://waltonfeed.com/grain/life.html

Interesting find, though its specific numbers are strongly dependent on
modern industrial packaging techniques. We can hope that relative lengths
might still be valid, but some of the foods listed, like dehydrated
vegetables and powdered milk, should not really exist even in concept in
Cerilia. OTOH, what exactly is in "iron rations"?

> Soft Grains have softer outer shells which don`t protect the seed
> interior as well as hard shelled seeds and therefore won`t store as
> long.

And for this reason, flour (seed interiors extracted from their shells and
ground to a powder) keeps even less well than the grains it was made from.
The same web page says:

: After seeds are broken open their outer shells can no longer protect
: the seed contents and seed nutrients start to degrade. Don`t try to
: store unprotected flours longer than a year. Hermetically sealed in the
: absence of oxygen, plan on a storage life of 5 years at a stable
: temperature of 70 degrees F.

"Hermetically sealed in the absence of oxygen" is the tricky part -- this
will be essentially impossible to obtain in Cerilia without magic. And
not simple magic, either -- the requirements seem to be along the lines of
a Permanent spherical Wall of Force and then a pinprick gate opened inside
it to the plane of Quasi-Elemental Vacuum. More efficient to just let it
rot and then have a priest cast Purify Food and Drink occasionally.
I`d say "Don`t try to store unprotected flours longer than a year" is the
relevant advice. In any case, with respect to flour versus whole grains,
note that even with modern packaging and storage techniques, grinding corn
or wheat cuts their shelf life by a factor of two or more:

> As a general rule for hard grains, hermetically sealed in the absence
> of oxygen, plan on a storage life of 10-12 years at a stable
> temperature of 70 degrees F.


Ryan Caveney

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