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  1. #1
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    Hi all.

    When Birthright came out, I think we all grappled with the concept of what was
    happening to a province`s population when it whent up in levels. The thought of
    a province (3) ruled to (6) going from population 10,000 to 40,000 in just one
    year seems a little far-fetched, no matter how many grant of lands or
    irrigration projects a Regent undertakes.

    My explaination, like many people, was to say province level reflects
    infrastructure (irrigation, windmills, etc) as much as population, so that
    province (6) might actually have far less people than the 40,000 stated in the
    rulebook, but increases gradually to that level over time. The basic assumption
    is that if a Regent makes the improvements, people will come eventually.

    But come from where? Natural growth? Without doing the math, it seems to me it
    would take decades to get that kind of increase. Now Anuire is a small place, so
    we can suppose most of the increase comes from immigration from other provinces
    or even domains, unproductive citizens coming from somewhere and, thanks to the
    new improvements.

    What if the province or small domain is practically cut off from the continent,
    either because of distance or magic (Warding spell)? An influx of new population
    would be needed at some point to allow growth. Anyone came up with a system to
    limit province increases until the population catches up?

    Robin

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  2. #2
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    In my own campaigns settings, I try to, well, complicate some of the basic rules of BR like the random event or the growth of the populations. I have now about 30 random events like the traditionnal one but some new like natural disaster or great festival or new ressource (basic, artisanal or industrial). For the growth of population I had a basic percentage of growth for all. This can be modified by the DM, events, tax collection, trade route, war, peace, realm spells and so on.
    I follow by classified each level with a population margin and a regent can only growth is province level when the population number is in the required margin.
    It's perhaps not in the spirit of the game, it' certainly not the best way, I know, but for me it was the only way, for the moment, I could be satisfied by this.

    Cheers ;)

  3. #3
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    A summary of my take on this (that I have published before) is that the
    population figures are URBAN population only.

    The countryside of Cerilia is quite uniformly developed, and rural
    population serves as the base, but provides very little income by itself. It
    is only when the regent has started an urbanization process that monetary
    wealth is created on a large scale.

    An old feudal-style economy uset the rural population as a power base and
    produced feudal units - but these are mostly out of style today.If you wish,
    in lieu of province income, you can have a single feudal cavalry unit (from
    plains) or infantry unit (form other terrains) as a feudal unit, cost free.

    The rationale for the rapid advancement of province levels is simple - there
    has recently been some inventions in agriculture, which makes it possible to
    free up rural labor. These people can form the basis of an explosive urban
    growth. Similar things have happened throughout pre-modern European history.

    /Carl


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  4. #4
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    Certainly a valid approach, but how exactly do you calculate population
    increase? What do you take as natural growth?

    Robin

    ----- Original Message -----
    From: Gauthier <brnetboard@TUARHIEVEL.ORG>
    To: <BIRTHRIGHT-L@ORACLE.WIZARDS.COM>
    Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 4:44 AM
    Subject: Re: [BIRTHRIGHT] Province level vs population [2#1128]


    | This post was generated by the Birthright.net message forum.
    | You can view the entire thread at:
    http://www.birthright.net/read.php?TID=1128
    |
    | Gauthier wrote:
    | In my own campaigns settings, I try to, well, complicate some of the basic
    rules of BR like the random event or the growth of the populations. I have now
    about 30 random events like the traditionnal one but some new like natural
    disaster or great festival or new ressource (basic, artisanal or industrial).
    For the growth of population I had a basic percentage of growth for all. This
    can be modified by the DM, events, tax collection, trade route, war, peace,
    realm spells and so on.
    | I follow by classified each level with a population margin and a regent can
    only growth is province level when the population number is in the required
    margin.
    | It`s perhaps not in the spirit of the game, it` certainly not the best way,
    I know, but for me it was the only way, for the moment, I could be satisfied by
    this.
    |
    | Cheers ;)
    |
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    |

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  5. #5
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    On Wed, 4 Dec 2002, Robin Cantin wrote:
    > Certainly a valid approach, but how exactly do you calculate population
    > increase? What do you take as natural growth?

    In the real world, population doubled every 50 to 75 years, up to the
    carrying capacity of the land. Plagues and famine reduced it. Barring
    major migration, and bearing in mind that magic tends to mitiate plagues
    and famines a bit, I`d go with a natural province level increase of 1
    every 50 years, naturally. That`s a little quick at the low end, and a
    little slow at the last, but it works for me.
    --
    Communication is possible only between equals.
    Daniel McSorley- mcsorley@cis.ohio-state.edu

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  6. #6
    Senior Member ryancaveney's Avatar
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    On Tue, 3 Dec 2002, Robin Cantin wrote:

    > The thought of a province (3) ruled to (6) going from population
    > 10,000 to 40,000 in just one year seems a little far-fetched, no
    > matter how many grant of lands or irrigration projects a Regent
    > undertakes.

    I wholeheartedly agree.

    > My explaination, like many people, was to say province level reflects
    > infrastructure (irrigation, windmills, etc) as much as population,

    My preferred explanation is not so much construction of new infrastructure
    as it is expanding control over existing infrastructure. I also rather
    like Starfox`s urbanization idea, but I`m not completely converted yet; in
    particular, I think adopting it might require additional significant
    changes to pillaging and troop mustering, especially of levies -- not that
    those aren`t possible, but that I haven`t yet seen replacements I like.

    > so that province (6) might actually have far less people than the
    > 40,000 stated in the rulebook, but increases gradually to that level
    > over time.

    This is where we part company. I think all the people are already there:
    for example, since all plains provinces can be increased to a maximum
    level of 10, I think there are 100,000 people already living in each one.
    This means that the province level is really a measure of how efficient
    the regent is at getting the people to do what he wants.

    > But come from where? Natural growth? Without doing the math, it seems
    > to me it would take decades to get that kind of increase.

    Right. This is why I think the people have to already be there -- I don`t
    think your way of looking at the Rule action fixes its real problem.

    > Now Anuire is a small place, so we can suppose most of the increase
    > comes from immigration from other provinces or even domains,

    Gary is an advocate of the immigration explanation, but I don`t buy it.
    That would require much more mobility than I think the common people ought
    to have, and also breaks down on the large scale -- looking at Cerilia as
    a whole, "population growth equals immigration" must imply that Rule
    Province is a zero-sum game (lots of Ruling somewhere depends on lots of
    Pillaging elsewhere) or else it completely fails to address the too-fast
    population growth problem.

    > What if the province or small domain is practically cut off from the
    > continent, either because of distance or magic (Warding spell)?

    Yes, immigration certainly breaks down, in much the same way it does for
    the continent as a whole -- I don`t see that there are hundreds of
    thousands of people moving from Aduria and Djapar to Cerilia every year.

    > Anyone came up with a system to limit province increases until the
    > population catches up?

    I made one once that was a bit like Bjørn`s method, involving population
    growing on its own and the difficulty of Rule actions being modified by
    how many more or fewer people were there than the rulebook table wanted,
    but I found that since it meant each province could only be ruled about
    once per generation the complexity of the mechanic I`d written really
    didn`t help me very much more than just randomly picking one province on
    the map to simply Rule itself each domain turn. For "maximum game fun"
    purposes, I tend to lean towards interpretations of the Rule action that
    make it possible to keep close to the current mechanic.


    Ryan Caveney

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  7. #7
    Site Moderator kgauck's Avatar
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    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "daniel mcsorley" <mcsorley@CIS.OHIO-STATE.EDU>
    Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 1:26 PM


    > In the real world, population doubled every 50 to 75 years, up to the
    > carrying capacity of the land.

    That is only valid for certain areas, but as far as representing potential,
    it works fine.

    > That`s a little quick at the low end, and a
    > little slow at the last, but it works for me.

    Of course population should grow faster (rate of growth) is low populated
    areas, where there is still prime land available, where disease isn`t
    resident in the population yet, and where it is possible for children to
    find open land or exploit other economic niches, there is little incentive
    to limit child birth.

    At the top end, disease will slow growth, the surplus will be smaller per
    capita because of the need to exploit ever more marginal resources, and so
    population will be limited by both push and pull factors.

    Kenneth Gauck
    kgauck@mchsi.com

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  8. #8
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    To birthright-L : I calculate the rate of growth in a non-real basis, 2% by turn. A population will so double in less then 10 years, but only if there is no modifications, bad or good. You will say it's very quick, yes, but I think that my center view are my players, and it's at their advantage, as far as it's a little one.

    To all of you : I'm very interesting by all of your ideas and it will certainly give me some materials to upgrade my system. When some of you say, "this is slow", yes it's slow, but only in the view of the game who is centered on your player(s). That's why I say it can be modified by the DM's might.

    There's just one thing i'm not totaly agree with. It's when ryancaveney says "the population (100.000) is already there". Well, I can rather imagine that in a coastal plain in temperate region, but even in that region it will be a rate of more than 30 people by Km². It's a little bit to many people, don't you think so? In desertic or arctic region it's for me totally impossible. I don't like to be too negative, but it's too rigid and too far from reality. In all times people have always tried to associate in tribes or other organisations (american indians, barbaric people in europe). Even in the american conquest they associate to protect themselves against indians. But if it's your way to explain it, go for it, I don't try to convince you, just give my point of view.

    See you soon ([_] :P

  9. #9
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    Hello!

    Ryan B. Caveney wrote:

    >Gary is an advocate of the immigration explanation, but I don`t buy it.
    >That would require much more mobility than I think the common people ought
    >to have, and also breaks down on the large scale -- looking at Cerilia as
    >a whole, "population growth equals immigration" must imply that Rule
    >Province is a zero-sum game (lots of Ruling somewhere depends on lots of
    >Pillaging elsewhere) or else it completely fails to address the too-fast
    >population growth problem.
    >
    The United States have been ruled up quite a bit with immigrants from
    somewhere else - without depopulating those countries.
    Or perhaps the hugenottes (or however they are named in english) that
    immigrated from france to prussia.

    Or even: Wandering Gypsies? ;-)
    bye
    Michael

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  10. #10
    Site Moderator kgauck's Avatar
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    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "Michael Romes" <Archmage@T-ONLINE.DE>
    Sent: Thursday, December 05, 2002 12:40 PM

    > The United States have been ruled up quite a bit with immigrants from
    > somewhere else - without depopulating those countries.

    Because of the demographic trap, in which death rates decline before birth
    rates, and populations skyrocket. If, on the other hand, countries maintain
    rapid birth rates without traditional high death rates, populations rapidly
    strain available resources, and catastrophe occurs.

    Unless you imagine this to be takinig place, one must assume that birth and
    death rates are in line, and that net growth rates are very low.

    Kenneth Gauck
    kgauck@mchsi.com

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